First of all, Happy Birthday Dan Black! Well, not quite your dream came true today, but at least you got something, so I wish you’re happy now.
Hmm, let me see if the market could bring Dan another birthday present tomorrow…
It’s hard to call tomorrow, because CPC < 0.8 which means 76% chances a green close tomorrow, but CPCE, which has higher priority for calling the next day than that of CPC, is exactly equal to 0.56 which is a little dilemma here: it might be too bullish, may enough to call a red close tomorrow but if it were 0.55 then it’d be a lot easier for me to call a red close tomorrow. So I mean bears need a little luck tomorrow.
Meanwhile, I have ISEE Indices & ETFs only Index closed above 100, which was discussed here before. From the chart below, I don’t see much edge for bears tomorrow, but if we count 2 days period (which includes the dashed vertical red lines), then probably it’s a little bit bear friendly.
So combining the CPCE and ISEE together and probably Dan’s birthday wish, I guess we might see another red day tomorrow or at least not up too much to upset Dan…
Cobra, i see vix and spx both close in red, do that mean anyting? thx.
ReplyDeleteVIX closed in green.
ReplyDeletesince the CPCE data won't come out til later, it's still a premature call right cobra?
ReplyDeleteI've posted the offical CBOE readings, so 0.56 is official.
ReplyDeletewho is dan black?
ReplyDeletethx. cobra. and co-ask, who is Dan Black?
ReplyDeleteA reader who made a birthday wish...
ReplyDeletea fast money trader thinks the nasdaq will reject these levels because of an old resistance line... see pic http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/6835/resistance.png
ReplyDeleteHappy birthday Dan Black! Hope you've got what you want.
ReplyDeleteuup follow through? what is your target? Thanks
ReplyDeleteBears need a little luck tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteChart suggest UUP is going to plunge tomorrow!
ReplyDeleteUUP had no big down which is good. But a Doji today doesn't tell me much either. It could be a reversal bar or continuation bar, we need see tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteTrust me, Fed is going to say something good tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteThe 75 print on the RSI for the $COMP has always led to a nasty drop. The techs will lead down imo.
ReplyDeleteHERE
QQQQ is going to lead the market higher, so much pos. div. Shorts will be surprise.
ReplyDeleteVix got a Shooting Stars today. Hum... bad for the market
ReplyDeleteI'll take contrary side and say market shoot higher.
ReplyDeleteLets get beyond the indicators and take a good look at where we are.
ReplyDelete1) Everyone's eye is on the stock market and they seem quite bullish. All the blogs I am visiting suggest a bullish mode. Even this blog recently turned the long-term trend as up. Im seeing things on magazine covers saying the recession is now over.
2) In the previous "reocvery" in 2003, everyone's eye was on Iraq. I remember those times and no one could stop watching cnn from day to day watching tanks blaze into Iraq. Everyone is now clearly focused on the market and the economy NOT Iraq or other issues.
3) In the previous bear market, there were still jobs available and it wasnt difficult to find a job as long as you were flexible enough to get into a new industry. There are no jobs in the present time in any industry.
4) Valuations are clearly inflated and many companies are trading at high P/Es suggesting that the market is expecting an aggressive recovery. However, all indications seem to point to a very mild recovery at best.
5) We are now nearing the witching time which is September and October. Anything goes during these two months.
Im expecting for the market to arc at this point losing a few points here and there. The true fall will come in September and October.
Thanks Cobra...
ReplyDeleteI'm just looking for a nice correction in the next 2 weeks. Of course a nice crash would be even better... us bears can dream a little.
Dan Black
Schweizer, thanks for the link! It's very interesting.
ReplyDelete