OK, end of “right speculation” streak, let’s see how many days in a row I could be wrong. If this does happen, then trend could be changed, so beware.
For a few reasons, I expect an up day tomorrow or at least up in the morning and ended with small red or green. However on a longer term (a few days or even weeks) the pullback isn’t over yet so maybe it’s not a good idea to buy dips here.
Here’s a simple count about tomorrow as today is a Major Distribution Day (or 90% down day, which means NYSE down volume / NYSE up volume > 9), by counting the dashed vertical lines we can see that 17 out of 26 (65%) times recently, a green day next day.
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i'm leaning towards a small up day or flat overall.
ReplyDeleteCobra, how confident do you expect a green close tomorrow 1 to 10?
ReplyDeleteCPCE>0.56 and CPCI<1.55, so tomorrow most likely will be an up day. Is my guessing right, Cobra?
ReplyDeleteHiThere
Mr. Confident, I'll say 6.5. :-)
ReplyDeleteHiThere, I won't read that way.
Wrong Anony, stupid!
ReplyDeleteThanks Cobra.
ReplyDeleteThanks Cobra. So, only CPCE<=0.56 (red next day) or CPCI>=1.55 (green next day), but not vice versa.
ReplyDeleteHiThere
It appears that if the IT trend is changing (from rally to decline), then the statistics seem to favor continued declines. If this is just a pullback, then yes, tomorrow would probably be an up day. I'm betting down so sue me...
ReplyDeleteIt's interesting that you call Monday a major distribution day. There was no distribution Monday. What happened was that the market was re-priced overnight, before the open. (Perhaps there was distribution overnight. I haven't looked at the futures charts.)
ReplyDeleteIt seems to me that there is a difference between repricing and distribution (or accumulation). The difference is that the people who presumably want to get out (or get in if we're talking about accumulation) didn't move the market. It wasn't their selling (or buying) that moved the market during the day—because the market didn't move during the day.
HiThere, only extreme readings matter. So only CPCE <= 0.56 and CPCE >= 1.55 work RECENTLY.
ReplyDeleteBlue, the name is misleading perhaps. Every time when NYSE Down Volume / Up Volume > 9, I call it Major Distribution Day because I have some research based on it. That day doesn't mean people are distributing.
I'm going to try and short the Emerging Markets should we get the bounce.
ReplyDeletehttp://macddaddy.blogspot.com/
thx, ding
ReplyDeleteThanks, Cobra.
ReplyDeleteI think Blue's comment should be taken more seriously. A distinction ought to be made between days that progressively distribute prices lower and days that open re-priced. Clearly there is a huge difference.
ReplyDeleteNames become misleading for a reason: because they become labels that are used indiscriminately. The psychological effects of a re-priced open are very different than a higher volume distribution day. I got the feeling today that a lot of bulls were immune to the pain since they weren't paying attention. I say we drift higher from here because the bulls have had more time to reconcile themselves to the new conditions. There won't be enough conviction from the bears to induce panic.
Well Cobra...
ReplyDeleteFriday didn't crash and today wasn't really a crash day, but it's a great start!
Dan Black
It will definitely be a choppy day tomorrow thats for sure.. Great info i like how you went back to previous days and found the percentage.. very helpful.
ReplyDeletediscogen, so maybe the more popular name: 90% down/up day is more appropriate?
ReplyDelete