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*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
SEASONALITY: WEEK AFTER TRIPLE WITCHING, DOW DOWN 15 OF LAST 22, ALSO MARCH IS KNOWN AS A TURNING MONTH
See 03/19 Market Recap for more details.
CYCLE ANALYSIS: COULD RISE TO AROUND 03/25 BEFORE ANY MEANINGFUL PULLBACK
OK, tomorrow is 03/25 (See 03/22 Market Recap for more details), let’s see if cycle works or not this time. I know cycles didn’t work well recently, but usually they did work so I still consider them as important factors. Just please make sure you understand how to use the table above, as all I provided here are info only, analysis isn’t equal to trading which usually requires trigger and confirmation (I think you should’ve seen the trigger and confirmation in some of my trading setups). I’m not convinced if the market will pullback exactly on 03/25 but consolidate for a few more days before actually pulling back is more likely. As also marked on the chart, the next important date is 04/10 which I’ve been mentioning for several times and will provide more arguments for why that date is important later, for now just remember the next date is 04/10 and according to the cycle theory, the market could pullback from 03/25 to 04/10. Sounds unbelievable right now? Well, I don’t see any solid proof for pulling back to 04/10 either, but we’ll see.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD
See 03/19 Market Recap for more details.
SHORT-TERM: MORE TOP SIGNALS, COULD MEAN MORE CONSOLIDATION BEFORE PULLBACK
As mentioned in today’s After Bell Quick Summary, see chart 6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch, needs SPY Open > Close to confirm NYMO Sell setup tomorrow.
1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily), the NDXA50R (Nasdaq % stocks above MA(50)) below is way too high, see dashed vertical lines, NDXA50R too high doesn’t mean an immediate pullback, the market could consolidate for a few more days but certainly I don’t expect the market to up huge from here.
1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), could be a Descending Triangle in the forming. However, unlike most believed, Descending Triangle actually is not a reversal pattern, instead it’s more likely a continuation pattern, so now it’s hard to see if the chart is bearish, need see tomorrow.
STOCK SCREENER: For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.
Looks like it’s too late to long stocks now as the market is way too overbought. Waiting for a better chance.
