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| SPY SETUP | ENTRY DATE | STOP LOSS | INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU | | ST Model | 02/26 L | *03/16 low | *Adjust stop loss. | | Reversal Bar | | | | | NYMO Sell | 03/25 S | 03/25 high | | | Non-Stop | | | *Newly added setup as requested, suitable for investors, no stop loss, simply long or short. Better use RSP (equal weighted SPX ETF) for an average annual return around 15.4% since 2004. Will start to give signal on this setup the next time it’s triggered. | | OTHER ETFs | MID TERM | INDICATOR | COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. | | QQQQ | UP | 3 of 3 BUY | 6.4.6 QQQQ Black Bar Watch: doesn’t look good.
4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): BPNDX too high. | | IWM | UP | 2 of 2 SELL | | | CHINA | *UP | 1 of 1 BUY | *4.1.4 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Weekly): Symmetrical Triangle, breakout on the upside! | | EMERGING | ? | 2 of 2 SELL | *Breakout Roof formation on the upside, may change the intermediate-term status if further up. | | CANADA | UP | 2 of 3 SELL | 4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): 3 Doji under important resistance. Lots of negative divergence plus BPTSX is too high. Expect pullback. | | BOND | DOWN | 2 of 2 SELL | Symmetrical Triangle breakdown. Expect more pullbacks ahead. | | DOLLAR | UP | 2 of 2 BUY | Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $24.28.
3.1.1 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP 30 min): Could be Head and Shoulders Top, target $23.74.
*6.4.5 GLD and UUP Watch: GLD black bar most likely means UUP rebound tomorrow. | | GOLD | DOWN | 2 of 2 SELL | | | GDX | DOWN | 2 of 2 SELL | Small Double Top, target $41.52. | | OIL | ? | 1 of 2 SELL | *Breakout Roof formation on the upside, may change the intermediate-term status if further up. | | ENERGY | ? | 3 of 3 SELL | | | FINANCIALS | UP | 2 of 3 BUY | *3 black bars, expect a pullback.
4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Fib confluences area is at $16.76 - $16.97, could be the intermediate-term target. | | REITS | UP | 2 of 2 BUY | False breakout on narrow range so the real breakout could be on the downside. | | MATERIALS | ? | 1 of 3 BUY | 4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): BPMATE too high. | |
*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
SEASONALITY: THE LAST 3 TRADING DAYS OF MARCH ARE BEARISH WHILE APRIL 1ST IS VERY BULLISH
CYCLE ANALYSIS: EXPECT A DOJI THIS WEEK, MAY PULLBACK NEXT WEEK UNTIL 04/12
See 03/26 Market Recap for more details.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD
Nothing new, according to the II Survey, too many people expected a correction, so the stock market should rise to a new high first before actually pulling back. Basically, my guess is that we’ll repeat the year 2004 roller coaster pattern. See 03/19 Market Recap for more details.
SHORT-TERM: SELL SHORT AT TODAY’S CLOSE WERE ALL WINNING TRADES IN THE LAST 7 MONTHS
Nothing to say today, maintain the forecast for pullback to 04/01 then rebound on 04/01, the weekly bar could be a small body bar or Doji, the real pullback could be the next week.
6.5.2b Month Day Seasonality Watch, someone complains about seasonality no longer works anymore, well, maybe I didn’t make it clear in the weekend report, green day today is actually normal (see green arrows), the setup actually means to sell short at today’s close, for the past 7 months, they were all winning trades. I’m not sure if this time it works or not, let’s see tomorrow.
The chart below is from stocktiming, institution sellings are increasing recently. Info only, it doesn’t mean anything significant for now though.
STOCK SCREENER: For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.
Looks like it’s too late to long stocks now as the market is way too overbought. Waiting for a better chance.
