03/23/2010 Market Recap: All Up Day!

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL

ATTENTION 2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Negative divergence. BULLISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 119.42. BEARISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): 15 unfilled gaps. (max was 16) 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): 9 unfilled gaps. (max was 10) 0.0.9 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Top signal triggered. CPCE MA(5) too low. 0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE MA(10) too low. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: NYHILO too high. 03/17 Market Recap: Dumb money confidence too high. 03/17 Market Recap: Too many bearish extremes among all sentimentrader indicators. 2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume: A little too high. 6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: VIX to VXV ratio is way too low. CONCLUSION Bearish signals are accumulated enough to justify a short sell. for aggressive traders only. 03/19, Bearish Engulfing, could be another short sell chances, good luck bears!

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 02/26 L *03/11 low *Adjust stop loss. Reversal Bar   NYMO Sell     VIX MA ENV     OTHER ETFs MID TERM SHORT TERM COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ UP UP IWM UP UP CHINA DOWN ? EMERGING ? UP CANADA UP UP 4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): 2 Doji under important resistance. Lots of negative divergence plus BPTSX is overbought which had led to a 2 weeks pullbacks in the past. FINANCIALS UP UP REITS UP ? MATERIALS ? UP OIL & ENERGY ? UP GOLD & GDX DOWN ? DOLLAR UP ? Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $24.28. BOND DOWN ? Could pullback soon as it hits resistance.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: WEEK AFTER TRIPLE WITCHING, DOW DOWN 15 OF LAST 22, ALSO MARCH IS KNOWN AS A TURNING MONTH

See 03/19 Market Recap for more details.

CYCLE ANALYSIS: COULD RISE TO AROUND 03/25 BEFORE ANY MEANINGFUL PULLBACK

See 03/22 Market Recap for more details.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD

See 03/19 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: ALL UP DAY MEANS A DOWN DAY TOMORROW, I’M NOT CONVINCED THOUGH

Nothing to say today. Already mentioned in the After Bell Quick Summary, there’s 77% chances of an up day tomorrow. However, according to 6.4.9 All Up Day Watch, see dashed red lines, because today’s an All Up Day, so it should mean a down day tomorrow. Personally, I’m not convinced about the down day the next day after an All Up Day kind of stuff, for detailed discussion please see 11/17/2009 Market Recap. Right now I’m very anxious to know what the Rydex traders and institutions’ reactions toward today’s big rally. Unfortunately, the most recent data about these two sides will have to wait until tomorrow morning so if I find something interesting, I’ll have another post tomorrow morning.

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

Looks like it’s too late to long stocks now as the market is way too overbought. Waiting for a better chance.