*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
SEASONALITY: THE LAST 3 TRADING DAYS OF MARCH ARE BEARISH WHILE APRIL 1ST IS VERY BULLISH
CYCLE ANALYSIS: EXPECT A DOJI THIS WEEK, MAY PULLBACK NEXT WEEK UNTIL 04/12
See 03/26 Market Recap for more details.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD
Nothing new, according to the II Survey, too many people expected a correction, so the stock market should rise to a new high first before actually pulling back. Basically, my guess is that we’ll repeat the year 2004 roller coaster pattern. See 03/19 Market Recap for more details.
SHORT-TERM: A SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE MEANS ONE MORE PUSH UP?
Nothing to say again. 1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min), could be a Symmetrical Triangle in the forming therefore according to Elliott Wave Theory, tomorrow we could see one more push up. The VIX sharp sell off before the close also supports the theory. However whether SPY will eventually close in green is hard to say because the breadth below (black histogram bars) is becoming weaker and weaker,unless there’s some really good news tomorrow otherwise the breadth would become even weaker so chances for a red day tomorrow is a little bit higher.
4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly), take a look at the weekly chart again, see red vertical lines, BPSPX way too overbought means at least there’ll be a red weekly bar ahead. However, see green cycle, there’s one case in the past the SPX rose one more week before actually pulling back and this is why I think we might have a Doji or small bar this week (i.e. one more green week) and the next week will be red.
STOCK SCREENER: For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.
Looks like it’s too late to long stocks now as the market is way too overbought. Waiting for a better chance.