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Wednesday, November 12, 2008

11/11 Market Recap: The Hope of Rebound

Today we got a mid-term sell signal, but it is not very reliable recently.  In the short term I think the market is due for a rebound as soon as tomorrow.  The strength of potential rebound will help us to judge if the rally since Oct 28th is still alive.

2.4.2 NYSE - Issues Advancing.  It is a very reliable signal, which is oversold today.  Therefore the market may likely bounce back up in the short term.  By the way, in the past every time when this signal reaches the current level, the market always bounces back in the next day.  Of course the recent few times the rebound showed up after a significant selling off, and in the slowest case the market bounced back three days after the signal (Oct 7th).


1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships.  The dominant price-volume relationships today were 1430 stocks price down volume up, which means the market is oversold and due for a rebound in the short term.


1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), 1.1.5 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 60 min), Bullish Falling Wedge, and MACD and RSI show positive divergence.


0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals.  Note the pattern of selling off recently is always two down days, there is no case of three down days.  Therefore if the pattern is still valid, the market might bounce back.  Of course one should also note that most likely the rally is a one-day job.  Furthermore, STO at the top also reaches the level where the market bounced back previously.


1.0.6 S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index.  Three major indices have confirmed the mid-term sell signal today.


5.3.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily).  Financials tested the lower edge of the triangle, it will make it or break it tomorrow.



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