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Thursday, November 20, 2008

11/20/2008 Market Recap: Uncharted Territory

The possibility of short-term rebound is still quite high.  Concerning the trend reversal in the intermediate term, we have a news unrelated to TA -- the discussion of bailout plan for the three automakers will be postponed to December.  With such a big uncertainty, I guess the mid-term trend reversal won't happen until December.

1.0.2 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Monthly).  2002 low that everyone was talking about has broken without any battle.  Look at the possible supports underneath.  Around 1994 there is a significant consolidation area.  Therefore, only that region can provide decent support theoretically.  Of course myself doesn't even believe the market could drop there.


0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals.  All signals are oversold.


1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships.  Today's dominant price-volume relationships are oversold, 2058 stocks price down volume up.


2.1.2 NYSE - Tick.  TICK is still extremely negative, which means the market could bounce back in the early morning.


3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield.  This is about rebound too.  Note the green dashed lines, when ROC30 goes below -9, the market which is denoted by the green curve on the background of the chart has a high chance to bounce back up.  When the bond yield is very low, the money will consider the stock market is cheaper and flow to it.  Of course, I don't know if the money is still willing to flow into the stock market given such an extraordinary situation.  Today's 3-month US T-bill Yield (3.0.2 TED Spread) is almost zero, which shows that the money is extremely panic.


3.0.3 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Daily).  Look at TLT, such a monster candle.  The volume today is huge, and the moneys were really scared.  RSI shows that TLT is overbought, STO reaches the level where the reversal happened last time.  Therefore TLT might pull back, which means the market may bounce back up.



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