Live Update

Tuesday, February 3, 2009

02/03/2009 Market Recap: Firework begins

3 points to say:

  1. CPC is still very low, and this might be a beginning of the firework according to the past.  For the best scenario, the rally could last for several days until the market gaps (big) down.  However it's unknown to me which day is the reversal day, maybe tomorrow, may the day after tomorrow, maybe...
  2. If the market does not gap down a lot tomorrow, it may dip a bit and close in green.  If it does (big gap down), well, according to above (point 1), better not to expect even an intra-day rebound.
  3. Financials were lagging in today's rally.

Bulls better to lock the profit when appropriate since CPC lower than 0.8 is not sustainable.  Bears should be cautious since the market can go up crazy when CPC is lower than 0.8.


1.0.8 Extreme CPC Readings Watch.  This is the proof to the above notes.  When CPC reading is lower than 0.8, at least the market goes up the next day, and the probability of further rally is quite high until a big gap down, afterward the sell off could be massive too.


1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min).  Here is why the market will probably pull back tomorrow morning -- possible bearish rising wedge (volume isn't right though), ChiOsc negative divergence, as well as high STO and RSI readings.


5.0.1 Select Sector SPDRs.  The pattern on XLF is a bearish dark cloud cover today.  It's bearish that XLF didn't rally with the broad market.



  1. I would like to say that I have been reading your blog for several weeks now and I really appreciate the insight you offer.

    Very well done.


  2. Hi

    Do you give any consideration to these pennant formations on the indexes that have developed since late september - or are these too general a pattern to take much from?

    also - if INDU leads the market how many days do you give other indexes to follow before the INDU lead event is over aged as a signal?

    thanks for all your hard work - I read it nightly.

  3. I appreciate your work as well Cobra. It's one of my go to sites.

  4. Do you have a 30-minute chart for XLF on your site?

  5. I don't see pennant formation or too big to be a pennant formation which text book says better not older than 4 weeks.

    I don't have time line for "INDU leads", as long as the chart works, I keep thinking "INDU leads". Because I read lots of charts every day, so one char work or does not work at one time, does not matter, I draw conclusions from all the signals I get from that day.

  6. No 30min XLF chart for now. Will probably add it later (someone asking for XLF, XLE, USO 30min charts, yes, I saw that).

  7. Nice work Cobra.
    I'm also looking for one of those freakish gap down days to get things going. But I dont think we are there yet. But not far either...$TRIN&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p74899672324&listNum=1&a=159722754$CPC&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p51697237237&listNum=1&a=154880176

  8. Your analysis has been one of my go-to websites for the next trading day. Keep up the wonderful work!

  9. Yeah, you are bookmarked and I check you nightly. Thanks a lot!!!!

  10. I've been following you religiously for awhile. I love your charts and analysis.

    Then...Wow, are #2 out of all of StockCharts Public Chart Lists!

    ...and, you are so very close to taking the #1 spot!

    Congratulations, Cobra! Keep up the excellent work!

  11. MasProps....
    How about that 11am pivot?

    the Wedge is declining in volume,but slightly...
    But as a flag....

    Consolidations are sometimes waiting for a catylist.



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