Live Update

Thursday, February 5, 2009

02/05/2009 Market Recap: Firework continues

OK, no follow-through of the yesterday's bearish reversal, then firework shell continue. Three points to say:

1. CPC again dropped bellow 0.8, if no big gap down open tomorrow, then probably the firework will continue which means consecutive up for a few days until one day the market opens with big gap down.

2. Trend still favors downside. Also as I said before, extremely low CPC readings are bullish short-term but eventually there'll be a big sell off.

3. Pullback might be tomorrow morning, may close green however, again as long as the market doesn't open with big gap down.


1.0.8 Extreme CPC Readings Watch, green dashed lines represent up day the next day when CPC was bellow 0.8, while red dashed lines represent down day the next day when CPC was bellow 0.8. Counting all these lines, 14 out of 18 (78%) times, the next day closes green.


7.0.3 NYSE Composite Index Breadth Watch, this is why I said trend still favors downside. The bounce has lasted 3 days but failed to recover the previous 3 down days. Plus, don't forget, the CPC payback time...


1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min), STO and TICK are overbought, so probably there'll be a pullback tomorrow morning.


1.1.6 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 15 min), lots of negative divergence, while 1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), no apparent negative divergence, so QQQQ has higher chances of pullback than SPY. Even it's possible that SPY closes up while QQQQ closes down tomorrow.



  1. Thank you Cobra. I am an addict to your site

  2. Great blog! Could you please little bit more about VIX and XLF?

  3. I'm with Anthony on XLF. Could you add charts and additional analysis of XLF?

  4. Dude, get a twitter profile and make little comments throughout the day. You could build up such a following!

  5. I don't use Twitter, but I would love to see regular comments from you during the day. I don't know if that's possible, since I think you have a full-time day job, right?

    Anyway, if you were to start up Twitter comments, then I would set up a Twitter profile so I could follow your comments.

    I love your charts and analysis!

  6. Please update Russell 3000 "Stock Up/Down Volume Up/Down" chart notes more often...

  7. Guys, too busy today. Will reply later. Sorry.

  8. First of all, thanks and really sorry, I cannot make intra-day comments for now.

    Russell 3000 chart only gets updated if there're "price up volume down" or "price down volume up" relationships on the day.

    As for XLF, VIX, I'll see if I can make some additional charts this weekend. I read all the charts in my chart book everyday and I mention only charts that have something meaningful for the day. So yes, I do read XLF and VIX every day, if I don't say anything about them on that day, that means there's nothing meaningful from them (or more precisely I'm not smart enough to draw some conslusions). After all, charts don't always say something meaningful everyday, hope you could understand this.

  9. Excellent Charts.. I have bookmarked and will be viewing regularly from now on.. regards. England,



The information contained on this website and from any communication related to the author’s blog and chartbook is for information purposes only. The chart analysis and the market recap do not hold out as providing any financial, legal, investment, or other advice. In addition, no suggestion or advice is offered regarding the nature, profitability, suitability, sustainability of any particular trading practice or investment strategy. The materials on this website do not constitute offer or advice and you should not rely on the information here to make or refrain from making any decision or take or refrain from taking any action. It is up to the visitors to make their own decisions, or to consult with a registered professional financial advisor.

This websites provides third-party websites for your convenience but the author does not endorse, approve, or certify the information on other websites, nor does the author take responsibility for a part or all materials on the third-party websites which are not maintained by the author.