Live Update

Tuesday, March 3, 2009

03/03/2009 Market Recap: Still No Panic

According to the weekend report, today should be counted as day 3, although an intraday reversal did happen as expected, I have no confidence about the possible rebound tomorrow, the reason is so far I haven't seen any panic yet. So if we do get a rebound tomorrow, it's probably nothing but a rebound. Besides this, I have not much to say today, everyone knows that the market is very very oversold, a rally could kick in at any time, just I have no idea when. The bottom line is chart 0.0.1 Market Top/Bottom Watch, if this chart shows no any bottom signals like it does now, any rebound is likely a good sell opportunity.



0.0.1 Market Top/Bottom Watch, the most important characteristic of a bottom is "panic" when the only word in everybody's mind is "sell sell sell". The indicators reflecting this panic status are Volume spikes, VIX spikes, NYSE New Low spikes. Now let's look at chart 0.0.1, Volume and VIX are not there, aren't they? New Low seems OK, but, look at the past bottom, just two golden bars seem not enough to justify a bottom, right? So, most likely we're not there yet.


1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships, this is the main reason I'm not confident about a bounce tomorrow, only 1054 stocks price down with volume up, comparing with that of Nov 20, 2008, it's not very convincing that today is a capitulation day, isn't it?


7.0.1 Extreme NYADV and NYMO Readings Watch, my "ultimate oversold" signals, probably the only oversold signal worth of looking at now. When both NYADV and NYMO are oversold, the next day tends to be an up day. The worst case was Oct last year when the market was sold off for another 3 days. The 2nd worst case was before the last Tuesday's rebound when the market, after NYADV and NYMO both went oversold, sold off for another 2 days. Anyway, let's see how many more days the market will remain under oversold this time. Hmm, just found that this chart happens to support my weekend's report - a rebound tomorrow, well, don't count on it, be prepared for the worst then perhaps luckily we may cheer  for the "less worst".



  1. Wow! that's some pretty good simplified Chinese. I think. Aw, I really don't know.

  2. What if she doesn't end in panic and we get a stealth bottom

    Nobody catches the bottom, and that is why.

  3. Maybe this time is different.

    But for VIX spike, I have a chart here, about why at 2003 bottom the VIX didn't spike. In short, no lower low was formed, so there wasn't any spike.[s144423189]&disp=P

    Besides, let's say no VIX spike is necessary this time, then at least we should have several days of NYSE New Low spike, right? Also what about volume?

  4. Hey Cobra. I really like your analysis. I have one question though. Where do you get the data for the Dominanat Price-Volume relationship. I have Telechart and Don Worden talks about it all the time, but I couldn' find it included in the package. Any help would be appreciated.

  5. I’m suspicious: I haven't seen any information which points to a bottom. No one, no blog, no analyst, no bank writes that this is the end of the tumble, nobody says that this is the final low. And frankly, I don't believe it either. But this total negation of the possibility of a low after a decline of over 50 percent shows that we all might be wrong.

  6. without panic we are going to have to look for divergences. Some suggest that "panic" is not capitulation.

    it could be a technically divergent low.

    but what that is, is the 24 billion dollar question.

    It's stupid to think I know what it will look like, but what if we just build a classic base? or some kind of "cup"

    It's going to be "Darkest" when we bounce. but just cause it's dark doesn't mean it isn't going to get darker or that this won't drag on for 2 more years

  7. Hi, Jason, I use my own Easy Scan to find Dominant Price-Volume relationships.

  8. I tend to think that we're not far from a bottom, just no idea when.

  9. Cobra has now officially called a bottom!

  10. That was a joke!



The information contained on this website and from any communication related to the author’s blog and chartbook is for information purposes only. The chart analysis and the market recap do not hold out as providing any financial, legal, investment, or other advice. In addition, no suggestion or advice is offered regarding the nature, profitability, suitability, sustainability of any particular trading practice or investment strategy. The materials on this website do not constitute offer or advice and you should not rely on the information here to make or refrain from making any decision or take or refrain from taking any action. It is up to the visitors to make their own decisions, or to consult with a registered professional financial advisor.

This websites provides third-party websites for your convenience but the author does not endorse, approve, or certify the information on other websites, nor does the author take responsibility for a part or all materials on the third-party websites which are not maintained by the author.