Live Update

Wednesday, March 4, 2009

03/04/2009 Market Recap: Oversold Tension Relieved

The bulls achievement today was relieved the market of the oversold tension accumulated in the past five days and made the market short-term very overbought, so we may see further pullback at least tomorrow morning. It's been a long time that the market couldn't rally for more than one day, so whether the market could close green tomorrow to follow through the today's bounce is very important. Bottom line, still is chart 0.0.1 Market Top/Bottom Watch, any bounce before any signs of panic might be a good sell opportunity. Well, is it possible the market can be bottomed without any sign of panic? Here's a post for your reference: The Possibility of a ‘Stealth Bottom. I have a similar chart, created long time ago (for dealing with the same question again and again and again before the market bottomed), 8.0.2 Can market bottom without VIX spike?, which says that VIX has to spike before the market bottoms.



0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights, take a look at the overall trading signals, short-term oversold signals are all gone while instead we have several overbought signals. Not good.


The following chart is today's major concern, all sectors are up but financials. It even forged a new low today. Let's see for all the past bottom, how many times the rebound was without XLF? None, right? So for today's rebound, without XLF, how likely will it be a bottom?


1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships, this is another problem today, 1561 stocks price up volume down, statistically the market should down either tomorrow or the day after tomorrow.


1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min), STO, TICK, ChiOsc are all too high, so the market should pullback at least tomorrow morning.


1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), same problem, STO and ChiOsc are still very high.



  1. Maybe, to see the stealth bottom, we want to see up volume higher than down volume.

  2. Please comment on the extreme reading here -

    1.1.7 QQQQ Outperforms SPY Good Sign?

  3. I don't know how Mr Market is going to handle this. Past experience tells me, that chart usually doesn't work right way, it's a long term suff.



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