Live Update

Thursday, April 23, 2009

04/23/2009 1 vs 3 Bear Won

  Trend Momentum Comments - Sample for using the trend table. Warning: This is NOT a trading recommendation!
Long-term Down   Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend.
Intermediate Up Overbought According to $NYA50R and $CPCE, market might be topped.
Short-term Up Neutral  
Report Focused On Buyable dip or the market topped?
Today’s Summary

1 vs 3 bear won, however break above SPX 875 any time then uptrend is still intact.

Expect QQQQ to pullback soon.

7.1.0 Use n vs n Rule to Identify a Trend Change, 1 vs 3 bears won, so still the same predication about the market: seesaw while keep having lower low. However, the predication will be invalid any time if SPX breaks above 875.



Not much other to say today. Bearish signals have a little edge, not very much though, so market has slightly better chance to close in red tomorrow.

1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), any gap up open tomorrow will likely be filled because ChiOsc is already high so an up gap will make it go extreme.


1.1.4 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals, still overbought. ( has a data error about NDXA50R at bottom, but anyway, I can guarantee you it’s still very high today.)


1.1.5 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 30 min), too big the negative divergences, expect a big pullback soon.


3.1.1 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP 30 min), RSI oversold seems pretty accurate recently, therefore US$ might rebound tomorrow, this is not good for commodities and so is bad for the overall market.


7.0.2 SPX and CPC Divergence Watch, when both price and CPC rise together, most likely an unpleasant day next day. If however the market manages to close in green tomorrow then pay attention to CPC. If it rises as well then very unpleasant next Monday may be.



7.3.2 Firework Trading Setup, forgot to mention this yesterday, a firework trading setup was triggered because CPC was less than 0.8 yesterday.



  1. Who the heck knows?. I would love for you to just break out with a commentary one day and let us know what you really think. I'm convinced that you are a computer program. You do sensational TA all the time and might be emotionless. (That is a compliment - wish I could get less caught up in the day to day and just pay more attention to the chrts. Thanks for all you do. Your work is really great.

  2. Cobra. Do you see a diamond formation on top in SPX 60min chart?

  3. I really respect your blog but in today's summary you really said the market will go down if it doesn't go up.

  4. Watch for fireworks tomorrow. Bears coming out in full force?

  5. Market is looking to hurt everyone.

  6. Collings Educational Services, I'm very very tired those days, don't know what's going on with myself. Hope I could be better next week.

    XMan, I'm not a fan of a diamond top. :-)

    Eric, yes, that's the market.

  7. XMan, firework means to go up huge. I don't know how to comment this chart as I really doubt that this time, so just tell everybody the past result without my emotion being involoved.

  8. My fireworks are like blowing up stuff. I'm looking for market to drop big tomorrow or on Monday at the latest. That diamond top ain't looking good at all.

  9. If Copra tired then thats mean the market is in correction mood because corrections tends to be complex. what Copra needs is a clear trend move so he can relax :)
    I thank you Copra for your nice job here by leting us know the past results which is very important for me as a day trader
    (Dow Trader)

  10. Yong Pan--If you are not a TA genius, you are the nearest thing to it. But how can you compete in a contest where the rules have been suspended and reason has fled? Many thanks anyhow for your efforts and your sage counsel.

  11. Shame on me, completely wrong today.

    Yes, rule has been changed, but underlying still is suppy and demand, the fact bulls have spent 4 days still were unable to push above SPX 875 does mean something to me.

  12. It's a black hanging man this week. Perhaps next week we get a confirmation of the IT trend change?

  13. I still think that the market will seesaw, won't drop within day or two. If down next week, then probably up next next week.

  14. Cobra, thank you for your analysis. I was wondering about the "n vs n" rule. How is the success in giving signals in a bear market compared to signals in a bull market?

    I am asking because if it is generally true that stock prices moves down faster than it moves up, this would contradict the basis of the n vs n rule. The "n vs n" rule would give more bearish signals than bullish signals. What do you think?

  15. Man I was wrong today and lost $200. SPX high today 871.8...I'm pretty sure bulls will want to break 875 coming Monday.

  16. MY, see here:, for the past sample. I verified my n vs n rule very carefully so I'm pretty confident about it. The bottom line, I don't see "moves down faster than up" statistically. Also the N vs N rule is basically a dow theory about higher high/lower low, only I add a little time factor to facilitate buying dip or selling bounce. And that's why I said if SPX break above 875 then I have to recount N vs N because it violates the very basic dow theory.

    However, even SPX breaks above 875 on Monday, it takes bulls 5 days to do bears 1 day job, we still can see the up momentum is weakening and that is what we need to know because it usually takes time for the market to form a top, unlike a bottom, which usually forms with a sharp one day reversal.

  17. Still got some SDS at $64.20 so I'm not completely out yet. We'll see what bulls do next week. Your analysis is great. Keep it up!

  18. Okay, Cobra, so based on your comment, it sounds as if we can expect the MM's to blow out the 875 stops and then start their profit taking as the market trades sideways as momentum weakens and bears wrangle control? Or am I reading too much into it? Thanks for your insight.

    Have a good weekend. Can't wait until Sunday night summary. Thanks for the hard work.

  19. All I'm saying is that an up momentum is weakening for sure (therefore "sell bounce" isn't as dangerous as before now), but I don't know if this weakening momentum eventually will turn into a down leg. I'll have to see how market unfolds itself.

    The bear's best wish is no break out 875 at all and the market keeps having lower low. This is the simplest case.

    If there's a breakout above 875 decisively next week, then I'll have to re-evaluate.

    All in all, at current stage, I see risks trading on the long side and I guess after seesawing, the market should be down. But I won't go too fast on the short side and as usual, I'll let the market go first.

  20. 才知道你是中国人,厉害厉害真厉害,跟着你赚点小钱啊,呵呵.



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