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Sunday, April 12, 2009

Comment about the rising CPC and SPX

Just for your references, doesn't mean if I agree or disagree. As usual, everything in my blog is based on the fact. My goal is to present them and it’s up tp you, my dear readers, to decide whether to trust it or ignore it.

One additional thing I noticed that the last couple of weeks had rising $SPX and $CPC (10 day MA), but dropping $VIX. The only times I saw it before was Feb 08 and Aug 08, just before a crash. Have you seen that?

Here's the chart as a supplement of the comment.


As I’ve been saying, I believe that CPC is a leading indicator not as most believed a contrarain indicator.


As per request, the seasonality table.



  1. Cobra,

    At your earliest convenience, please post the updated table of daily seasonality for April.

    Thank you!

  2. Great observation Cobra. I just visually backtested this from the 2002 market onwards, couldn't find many occurances!

  3. Cobra

    To prove your point can you put $vix on the same chart with $SPX, and $CPC thanks

  4. Charts are updated as well as the seasonality table.

    CPC is Total Put/Call ratio. You can think put as short and call as long, so put/call ration is equal to short/long, therefore the smaller the value the more bullish the market. But if the value is too small, it'll then be considered as too bullish and therefore is very bearish.

  5. Thanks for posting the daily seasonality table, Cobra! I appreciate you being so responsive!

  6. The CPC is out of whack. All the CPC peaks were at bottoms and CPC bottoms were at peaks in the market. This tells me that either market is going to soar to make the CPC correct or the market is going to tank and CPC is going to make a u-turn and break the trendline of the CPC peaks. Given the divergence, I'd look for the market to tank and CPC to soar higher.

  7. @Eric,

    I think we could be at/near some sort of inflection point. While the 10-day MA of CPC has turned up, the 20-day is still waffling:$CPC&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p22935461716


  8. BMB:
    Thanks. That's an interesting chart. While these are MAs, it almost looks like they are acting in an inconsistent manner since 2009 began vs how they acted the prior year.
    All of the indicators I look at are saying a fairly sizable pullback, e.g. 50%-66% retracement, is coming...or probably started in the last half hour today.

  9. Hi Cobra,

    I couldn't find your charts on the SSEC. You used to have it on stockcharts.
    Have you stopped following SSEC?

  10. Yes, stopped. SSEC is more like a policy based market, where although the total market cap is 5T but there're 15T outside of the market that were bought with very very cheap price and could enter the market anytime whenever the government feels like it needs money. So I don't know if the normal TA still applies.



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