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Tuesday, December 1, 2009

12/01/2009 Market Recap: Bullish Broadening Top?


Could be a Bullish Broadening Tops is in the forming.

A little bearish biased toward tomorrow.

  TREND MOMENTUM EMOTION COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Up   Disbelieve  
Intermediate Down Neutral  
Short-term *Up Neutral    
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE INSTRUCTION STOP LOSS Mechanic trading signals for reference only.
Back tested since 2002.
ST Model 11/30 L

*Adjust Stop Loss



Reversal Bar 11/30 L

*Adjust Stop Loss



NYMO Sell 11/24 S

*Stopped out short position flat.

VIX ENV        
Patterns ect.         


Maintain the “building top” forecast. For details please see 11/27/2009 Market Recap. However there’s a possibility that the market is forming a Broadening Top pattern. The Dubai drama could be seen as a partial decline, therefore the pattern has 72% chances of breaking on the upside. The pattern is especially clear on the COMPQ daily chart. See below. Personally, I admit there’s a chance that the market could break the Broadening Top on the upside, just I don’t believe the text book target yet, looks too high to me.

 BroadeningTopSample BroadeningTop


No solid evidences for tomorrow, just a few not so convincing bearish charts so the market could pullback at least in the morning.

3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily), hollow red bar usually means a reversal. 3.1.2 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP 30 min), Bullish Falling Wedge plus lots of positive divergence. So looks like the dollar could rebound tomorrow which is not good for the stock market.

 UUPDaily UUP30min

3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily), black bar could mean a pullback, also not good for the stock market.



Just want you to know that 2.8.0 SPX:CPCE, trend line not held, therefore the top signal mentioned yesterday was invalid.


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