06/14/2010 Market Recap: Bull’s Guardian Angel

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in SELL mode Short-term 2 of 2 are BUY 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in SELL mode GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE & TIME FIB CONCLUSION 06/11-06/14 06/12 / 06/21 07/31, 08/20-08/23 Next pivot date: 06/11-06/14.

BULLISH 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Bottomed? 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high. 8.1.1 Normalized NATV/NYTV: Bottomed? 6.3.2c Major Distribution Day Watch: Bottomed? 6.3.1 Major Accumulation Day Watch: Bottomed? 05/28 Market Recap: II survey shows too many people are expecting a correction. 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPC MA(5) too high. BEARISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Ascending Broadening Wedge? Target: 1008 to 1019. 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Positive divergence missing, so one more down leg ahead? CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 06/04 S 1.9xATR(10) Reversal Bar     *Short if SPY tomorrow’s open > tomorrow’s close. The stop loss will be 0.9 x ATR(10), if you need it to calculate the position size. NYMO Sell     Non-Stop(RSP) 05/11 S N/A Partial profit on 05/28. OTHER ETFs TREND *DTFMS COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ DOWN *BUY IWM DOWN *BUY CHINA DOWN EMERGING *UP BUY EUROPEAN *UP BUY 4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.54. CANADA DOWN *BUY BOND UP SELL EURO DOWN *BUY GOLD UP 4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. GDX UP OIL UP BUY ENERGY UP BUY FINANCIALS DOWN *BUY REITS *UP *BUY MATERIALS DOWN BUY

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.

SEASONALITY: A LITTLE BIT BULLISH ON JUNE TRIPLE WITCHING WEEK

See 06/11 Market Recap for more details.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLS HAVE HOPES BUT STILL SOME BEARISH PUZZLES UNRESOLVED

See 06/11 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: CHART DOESN’T LOOK GOOD

The indices and sectors daily charts don’t look good today, all opened high then went higher high but eventually closed in red, forming a so called Bearish Reversal Day. Take a look all the recent cases on what happened when SPY formed a Bearish Reversal Day (red arrows). A short-term pullback or a few days of consolidation then pullback is more likely, isn’t it? If interested, take a look at some none indices chart, such as 0.2.0 Volatility Index (Daily) and 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield, neither look good as well.

Although technically the short-term is not bull friendly but I’ve mentioned all the recent cases in today’s After Bell Quick Summary that all the sharp sell off before the close were met with a huge huge gap up the next day. Now the question is whether the 3rd time is the charm?

  

So to summarize, although technically not so bull friendly, but bulls are so blessed recently that every weakness was being bought, so we need see if again the bull's Guardian Angel will arrive tomorrow, until then, it’s still too early for bear to open a bottle of champagne.