06/22/2010 Market Recap: Uptrend Intact

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 2 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 2 are BUY ??? 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE & TIME FIB CONCLUSION 07/07-07/11 06/26 / *07/07 06/24, 07/31, 08/20-08/23 Next pivot date: 06/24?

BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high. 8.1.1 Normalized NATV/NYTV: Bottomed? *0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Bottomed? BEARISH CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model   No buy setup triggered yet. See 06/21 Market Recap for more details. Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell     Non-Stop(RSP) 06/17 L N/A See 06/17 Market Recap for more details. OTHER ETFs TREND *DTFMS COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ UP   IWM DOWN   Ascending Broadening Wedge, downward breakout 73% of the time. CHINA DOWN EMERGING UP   EUROPEAN UP   CANADA UP   BOND UP   EURO DOWN   GOLD UP   4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. GDX UP   4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX:$SPX is too high. OIL UP   ENERGY UP   FINANCIALS DOWN   REITS UP   MATERIALS UP

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.

SEASONALITY: WEEK AFTER JUNE TRIPLE WITCHING WAS BEARISH

See 06/18 Market Recap for more details.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: INITIAL REBOUND TARGET AROUND 1150 AND TIME TARGET AROUND 06/24

See 06/14 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: EXPECT A REBOUND AS EARLY AS TOMORROW

As mentioned in today’s After Bell Quick Summary, the bull case became complicated because the Double Bottom neckline was broken. However there’s no lower low yet on the SPY daily chart plus all the trend indicators in the table above are still up, so officially, the uptrend is intact.

Remember the on going project mentioned in 06/11 Market Recap: 66% Winning Rate If Buy at the Friday’s Close? That was a good call, which means the on going project should have a little credit. Now still the same on going project, if:

1. Short intraday tomorrow.
2. Stop loss above the 06/21 high.
3. Set the stop loss to breakeven as soon as the current bar high is below your entry point.

You have 43% chances and the average gain is a little little little bit negative, in another word is to short now doesn’t have much edge.

 

About tomorrow, 2 “excuses” was provided in today’s After Bell Quick Summary calling for a green day tomorrow. Here’s the 3rd “excuse”, I manage to find: The short-term model from sentimentrader, see red line, seems OK recently, even at the time when the market was sold off hard a month ago.

 

0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals, just a reminder here, 3 point validated trend line formed today, therefore if CPCE keeps rising tomorrow, then bulls should be careful, a top could be confirmed.