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Monday, June 28, 2010

06/28/2010 Market Recap: Firework?

  TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart)
Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY    
Intermediate 2 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in BUY mode
Short-term 2 of 2 are SELL 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode
GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE & TIME FIB CONCLUSION
07/07-07/11 07/11 / 07/07 07/31, 08/20-08/23 Next pivot date: 07/07-07/11
BULLISH 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC < –9%, so bottomed?
0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: all 3 ratios are high, so bottomed?
0.2.5 NYSE Total Volume: Spike high, so bottomed?
BEARISH 0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: trend line broken, so topped?
6.3.2b Major Distribution Day Watch: 2 MDD within 5 days means an intermediate-term downtrend?
4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): bearish engulfing were bearish for the next several weeks.
CONCLUSION  
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
ST Model   *Buy setup wasn’t confirmed therefore is invalid.
Reversal Bar     *Buy setup wasn’t confirmed therefore is invalid.
NYMO Sell    
Non-Stop(RSP) 06/17 L N/A See 06/17 Market Recap for more details.
OTHER ETFs TREND *DTFMS COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ UP  
IWM DOWN BUY Ascending Broadening Wedge, downward breakout 73% of the time.
CHINA DOWN
EMERGING UP  
EUROPEAN UP
CANADA UP *SELL
BOND UP *BUY Breakout but ChiOsc is way too high now.
EURO DOWN BUY
GOLD UP BUY 4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99.
GDX UP BUY 4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX:$SPX is too high.
OIL UP BUY
ENERGY UP *SELL
FINANCIALS DOWN BUY
REITS UP BUY 4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Pay attention to XHB weakness!
MATERIALS UP *BUY

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY, BULLISH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY

See 06/25 Market Recap for more details.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: THIS WEEK NEUTRUAL, NEXT AND NEXT NEXT WEEK ARE BEARISH

See 06/25 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: DIRECTION UNCLEAR BUT BULLISH CPC READINGS MAY MEAN A FIREWORK AHEAD

All I wanted to say are in today’s After Bell Quick Summary, the market dropped again but put call ratio seems bullish therefore we could see some “firework”. Just I don’t know if this “firework setup” originated in 2008 would work this time or not. Besides this, I have nothing else to say. The short-term direction is not clear, could be a Symmetrical Triangle in the forming which means one more leg down but also could be a Head and Shoulders Bottom in the forming which means a rebound. We have to wait until tomorrow to see in which direction the market will breakout. Either way, the move will be big, so buckle your belt!

SPY15min

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