06/10/2010 Market Recap: Watch SPX 1105ish

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in SELL mode Short-term 1 of 2 are SELL 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in SELL mode GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE & TIME FIB CONCLUSION 06/11-06/14 06/12 /06/21 07/31, 08/20-08/23 Next pivot date: 06/11-06/14.

BULLISH 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Bottomed? 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high. 8.1.1 Normalized NATV/NYTV: Bottomed? 6.3.2c Major Distribution Day Watch: Bottomed? 05/20 Market Recap: Intermediate-term Indicator Score from sentimentrader is too low. 6.3.1 Major Accumulation Day Watch: Bottomed? 05/28 Market Recap: II survey shows too many people are expecting a correction. 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPC MA(5) too high. BEARISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Ascending Broadening Wedge? Target: 1008 to 1019. 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Positive divergence missing, so one more down leg ahead? CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 06/04 S 1.9xATR(10) Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell     Non-Stop(RSP) 05/11 S N/A Partial profit on 05/28. OTHER ETFs TREND *DTFMS COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ DOWN   IWM DOWN   CHINA DOWN EMERGING DOWN BUY EUROPEAN DOWN *BUY 4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.54. CANADA DOWN   BOND UP *SELL EURO DOWN   Descending Triangle breakdown, target $117.21. GOLD UP 4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. GDX UP BUY OIL *UP BUY ENERGY DOWN *BUY FINANCIALS DOWN   REITS DOWN   MATERIALS DOWN *BUY

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.

SEASONALITY: A LITTLE BIT BEARISH BIASED THE NEXT WEEK

See 06/04 Market Recap for more details.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: PULLBACK TARGET AROUND 1008 TO 1019, TIME TARGET AROUND 06/11 TO 06/14

See 06/04 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: WATCH SPX 1105ish

Still nothing to say today, I’m clueless about the market direction. Because today is a Major Accumulation Day (NYSE Up Volume to NYSE Down Volume ratio > 9), so tomorrow is most likely be a small range day, so we may have to wait until the next week to get the market’s real direction. One thing to remind you though, the 06/11 to 06/14 time window, I explained in 06/04 Market Recap, now looks like a cycle top.

The chart below puts together all the puzzles I’ve collected:

1. SPX 1105ish is the key, breakout above it, then a Double Bottom could be formed, the target will be around 1170ish. Failed to breakout then it could retest the 1040, which I don’t think will hold, because the 3rd time is the charm (well, to be exact, a Triple Bottom is very rare).
2. The 2 main reasons making me unsure whether the market has bottomed are also listed in the chart – no capitulation volume and NYMO missing positive divergence (see 06/09 Market Recap for more details).
3. Right now, the trend is still down as there’re no buy signals in the table above yet, so theoretically, sell the bounce is still the name of the game. Besides, the 1105 is actually a heavy resistance area which should be very hard to break through.