06/16/2010 Market Recap: Reversal Bar?

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in SELL mode Short-term 2 of 2 are BUY 3 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE & TIME FIB CONCLUSION *06/16-06/17 06/26 / 06/21 06/24, 07/31, 08/20-08/23 Next pivot date: 06/24?

BULLISH 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Bottomed? 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high. BEARISH CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 06/04 S 1.9xATR(10) *Cover short tomorrow. Too bad, I should’ve followed the original rule: never let profits turn into loss. The position should be stopped out on 06/09. See 06/08 Market Recap. The model from now on will use the original rule which may cause a little bit more trades but will be much safer. *No long position should be entered though. Warning: The Model is for fun only, make your own decision for your own money! Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell     Non-Stop(RSP) 05/11 S N/A Partial profit on 05/28. OTHER ETFs TREND *DTFMS COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ *UP BUY IWM DOWN BUY CHINA DOWN EMERGING UP   EUROPEAN UP     CANADA UP BUY 1.5.1 TSE McClellan Oscillator: Overbought. BOND UP   EURO DOWN BUY GOLD UP BUY 4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. GDX UP BUY OIL UP BUY ENERGY UP   FINANCIALS DOWN   REITS UP   MATERIALS DOWN

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.

SEASONALITY: A LITTLE BIT BULLISH ON JUNE TRIPLE WITCHING WEEK

See 06/11 Market Recap for more details.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: INITIAL REBOUND TARGET AROUND 1150 AND TIME TARGET AROUND 06/24

See 06/14 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: A LITTLE BIT NERVOUS FOR THE 2ND REVERSAL LIKE BAR IN 3 DAYS

As mentioned in today’s After Bell Quick Summary because SPY ST Model is now in buy mode, so for me (pay attention to FOR ME, as I said treat the model as a joke), officially the intermediate-term is up, the game is to buy dips. However, I also mentioned that I don’t feel good about tomorrow, maybe I’m too nervous, but here are the reasons:

0.2.0 Volatility Index (Daily), the solid black bar (Open > Close but Close > Yesterday’s Close) today usually means a reversal, plus the Monday’s hollow red bar (Open < Close but Close < Yesterday’s Close) which also means a possible reversal. So VIX may rebound which is not good for SPX.

 

0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield, identical to VIX, 2 reversal like bars within 3 days.

 

 0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, the hollow red bar today doesn’t look good, plus a bunch of overbought signals. 

 

So to summarize, I don’t feel good about tomorrow, but I’m not sure if we’ll see a big pullback because from the past experiences, the initial rebound from a bottom usually is very strong that no overbought signals would ever work for awhile, I’m not sure if we’re indeed in this kind of strong rebound phase. Basically, if we do see a pullback tomorrow, as long as the Double Bottom neckline below at 111.06 could hold, then the Double Bottom pattern is still valid and therefore the market is bullish. Well, we’ll see.