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*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
SEASONALITY: BEARISH MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY, BULLISH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
See 06/25 Market Recap for more details.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: PROBABLY NOT BOTTOMED TODAY
Bottomed? The answer is probably not for 2 reasons:
6.4.1a Extreme NYADV Readings Watch, NYADV too low means the selling pressure is very high so it almost guarantees SPX will have a lower close ahead, in another word is that it will close below 1041.
If you’ve been reading my posts then you probably remember there’s a doubt about whether the 05/25 low is THE LOW because the NYMO positive divergence (see 06/04 Market Recap) is missing. From the chart below we can see, even though SPX had a lower low today but for NYA, it’s still a higher low so there’s still no positive divergence yet. (Why uses NYA? Because NYMO is NYSE McClellan Oscillator not SPX McClellan Oscillator, so officially, NYA should be used to compare with the NYMO to check the divergence. Agree?)
Here’s a little hint about how the market will go the next. 0.1.2 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals, QQQQ had a consecutive 7 down days, let’s see in the past what happened thereafter? The chart below are all the other 4 cases since year 2000 when QQQQ had a consecutive 7 down days or more. Looks to me, tomorrow or no later than the day after tomorrow, there might be a rebound, but similar to the reason mentioned for the chart 6.4.1a Extreme NYADV Readings Watch above, the down pressure must be very strong to make QQQQ down 7 days in a row so it’s very rare that QQQQ would be successful on its very first rebound attempt, therefore accordingly, after a short-term rebound, chances are good that at least we’ll see one more leg down.
If the above speculation of at least 2 leg down is true, then be careful of the Head and Shoulders Top shown in chart 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly), once breakdown the price target could be around 861. Of course, now is far from a confirmed break down, so no need to worry for now. Let’s just keep this in mind and wait and see.
SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE REBOUND TOMORROW, NOT SURE AS SEASONALITY IS BEARISH FOR TOMORROW
As mentioned in today’s After Bell Quick Summary, there’re 67% chances a green day tomorrow. However because seasonality (See 06/25 Market Recap) is very bearish for tomorrow while very bullish for Thursday and Friday, so the rebound could be on Thursday instead of tomorrow. Also from chart 6.3.2c Major Distribution Day Watch, if “the tradable bottom is very close” still applies then indeed, Thursday and Friday are promising.
1.1.1 NYSE Composite Index Breadth Watch, see dashed green lines, whenever the NYADV:NYDEC MA(10) above is very low or the NYUPV below is very low, chances are very good that we’ll see a green day the next day. However the chart only reflects what happened in 2009 bull market, so I’m not sure if it applies now although officially we’re still in bull market therefore it should apply shouldn’t it?
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.
| TREND | *DTFMS | COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. | |
| QQQQ | UP | 0.1.3 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals: *ChiOsc a little too low. | |
| IWM | DOWN | Ascending Broadening Wedge, downward breakout 73% of the time. | |
| CHINA | DOWN | ||
| EMERGING | UP | *SELL | |
| EUROPEAN | UP | ||
| CANADA | *DOWN | SELL | |
| BOND | UP | BUY | Breakout but ChiOsc is way too high now. |
| EURO | DOWN | ||
| GOLD | UP | BUY | 4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. |
| GDX | UP | BUY | 4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX:$SPX is too high. |
| OIL | UP | BUY | |
| ENERGY | *DOWN | SELL | |
| FINANCIALS | DOWN | BUY | |
| REITS | UP | 4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Pay attention to XHB weakness! | |
| MATERIALS | UP | *SELL |
