06/21/2010 Market Recap: Turnaround Tuesday?

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 2 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in BUY mode Short-term 2 of 2 are BUY 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE & TIME FIB CONCLUSION *07/07-07/11 06/26 / 06/21 06/24, 07/31, 08/20-08/23 Next pivot date: 06/24?

BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high. 0.2.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume: Bottomed? BEARISH CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model   *No buy setup triggered yet. Although the primary signal is buy (which means an intermediate-term uptrend), but back test shows to take a long position as soon as the primary signal turns into buy, a little little bit more likely you’ll end up with a loss. Sure, you can long here but to me, wait for a secondary signal to enter a long position is much safer and right now there’s no secondary buy signal yet. Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell     Non-Stop(RSP)   *Buy signal since 06/17. See 06/17 Market Recap for more details. OTHER ETFs TREND *DTFMS COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ UP   *3 reversal like bars testing MA(50), doesn’t look good. IWM DOWN   Ascending Broadening Wedge, downward breakout 73% of the time. *4 reversal like bars in a row, doesn’t look good. CHINA DOWN EMERGING UP   EUROPEAN UP   ChiOsc is too high. CANADA UP   1.5.1 TSE McClellan Oscillator: Overbought. *1.5.0 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Daily): 3 reversal like bars, doesn’t look good. BOND UP   *Hollow red bar, rebound? EURO DOWN   GOLD UP   4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. GDX UP   4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX:$SPX is too high. OIL UP   ENERGY UP   FINANCIALS DOWN   REITS UP   MATERIALS *UP   *3 reversal like bars in a row, doesn’t look good.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.

SEASONALITY: WEEK AFTER JUNE TRIPLE WITCHING WAS BEARISH

See 06/18 Market Recap for more details.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: INITIAL REBOUND TARGET AROUND 1150 AND TIME TARGET AROUND 06/24

See 06/14 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: A LITTLE LITTLE LITTLE BULLISH BIASED TOMORROW

Nothing to say today, 4 reversal bars in a row, the SPY daily chart doesn’t look good. However as mentioned in today’s After Bell Quick Summary, for a Bearish Engulfing pattern like today, there’re only 15% chances a red day the next day since 2002. So very short-term is not very bearish.

 

The chart below is another reason that we could see a green day tomorrow, for fun only. Tomorrow is the Tuesday which is well known as the turnaround Tuesday. Interestingly, for the past 4 weeks, we had consecutive red Monday then green Tuesday. We had a red Monday today, so a green Tuesday tomorrow again? We’ll see.

 

By the way, from some questions raised in my forum, I see some misunderstandings about the SPY ST Model’s buy mode. I’ve explained a little in the table above: Buy mode is just the primary signal. You can long on the primary buy signal but it’s not as safe as the the secondary buy signal. The chart below is the back test summary of the current on going SPY ST Model improving project, the 81% winning rate only applies when you follow the the secondary signal not the primary signal.