06/15/2010 Market Recap: Double Bottom?

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in SELL mode Short-term 2 of 2 are BUY 5 of 6 are OVERBOUGHT SPY ST Model is in SELL mode GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE & TIME FIB CONCLUSION 06/11-06/14 06/26 / 06/21 06/24, 07/31, 08/20-08/23 Next pivot date: 06/11-06/14, 06/24

BULLISH 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Bottomed? 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high. 8.1.1 Normalized NATV/NYTV: Bottomed? 6.3.2c Major Distribution Day Watch: Bottomed? 6.3.1 Major Accumulation Day Watch: Bottomed? 05/28 Market Recap: II survey shows too many people are expecting a correction. 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPC MA(5) too high. BEARISH *0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator, overbought. CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 06/04 S 1.9xATR(10) Reversal Bar     *Setup not confirmed and no longer valid. NYMO Sell     Non-Stop(RSP) 05/11 S N/A Partial profit on 05/28. OTHER ETFs TREND *DTFMS COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ DOWN BUY IWM DOWN BUY CHINA DOWN EMERGING UP BUY EUROPEAN UP BUY   CANADA *UP BUY *1.5.1 TSE McClellan Oscillator: Overbought. BOND UP SELL EURO DOWN BUY GOLD UP *BUY 4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. GDX UP *BUY OIL UP BUY ENERGY UP BUY FINANCIALS DOWN BUY REITS UP BUY MATERIALS DOWN BUY

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.

SEASONALITY: A LITTLE BIT BULLISH ON JUNE TRIPLE WITCHING WEEK

See 06/11 Market Recap for more details.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: INITIAL REBOUND TARGET AROUND 1150 AND TIME TARGET AROUND 06/24

Has the market bottomed? All I can say now are: “very likely”. The major reason is we had a possible Double Bottom breakout today and according to my experiences the chart patterns are usually very reliable. So let’s assume that market has bottomed (Plus don’t forget all the bottom signals in the table above). The chart below shows all the possible time and price target based on the above assumption. I’ve annotated all the logics behind all those time and price target, should be clear enough.

 

SHORT-TERM: EXPECT A PULLBACK AS EARLY AS TOMORROW

For the short-term, I expect a pullback as early as tomorrow. See chart below, the NYMO is way too high (red dashed lines) which means most likely a red day the next day and not a small pullback.