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Wednesday, January 7, 2009

01/06/2009 Market Recap: NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average

Three points to say today:

1. NYA50R(NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average) in chart 0.0.1 Market Top/Bottomed Watch could mean that the market is topped, but under the current market conditions I doubt it.

2. Market still overbought. A pullback is healthy for the market, if the market keeps pumping up, then according to above mentioned NYA50R topping signal, it could be the final climax run and therefore is not good for the intermediate-term

3. Financials sector still lags. No good.


About the NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average, please check the bellow chart. Very high now which usually means an intermediate-term top.


The reason I have a doubt now is because of chart 7.0.5 NYSE Percent of Stocks Above MA200 bellow, it shows rather the market is near a bottom instead of a top. So I'm now inclined to look NYA50R as a short-term overbought signal. Well, I could be wrong, so be careful anyway.



About short-term overbought:


0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, Doji again, could be a reversal or a continuation tomorrow, 50 to 50. I bet down though.


1.1.6 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 15 min), MACD, RSI negative divergence, should pullback short-term. Also Canada 1.4.3 S&P/TSX Composite Index (15 min), the same, MACD, RSI negative divergence.


3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily), oil has been the main course for the recently rally, but today a reversal bar was formed. Could pullback and therefore not good for the overall market.


3.1.0 US Dollar Index (Daily), overbought, 3.2.0 CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY Daily), oversold. It was not a good combination for the market in the past. But now, I'm not sure if Carry Trade still exists, so, let's see.


SPX Short-Term Volume Osc from, highest in 3 years. The longer term indicator VTO bellow now is a little bit too high.


T2122 from Telechart  4 Weeks New High/Low Ratio, overbought.



About Financials Sector:


5.0.1 Select Sector SPDRs, for all 9 sectors, now only Financials and Materials sectors haven't breakout yet.



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