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Thursday, March 19, 2009

03/19/2009 Market Recap: The 2nd Bearish Reversal Day

Today is the second bearish reversal day in this week, and I guess there won’t be a follow-through tomorrow just like the first one on Monday because of the famous The 3rd time is the charm.  Albeit the market declined, it is still overbought either the short term or the intermediate term, therefore a pullback is still needed.  The financial sector is extremely oversold in the very short-term, so the market may at least bounce back up some time tomorrow and 67% of the chance may close in green according to 7.0.4 Extreme CPC Readings Watch in the case of CPC < 0.8.  However, a grand rally seems unlikely to me even the market does close in green.

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1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min).  The pattern on the chart looks like a Pennant which is a continuation pattern, so the market may possibly go up further.

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5.3.1 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF 30 min).  Since the ChiOsc is way too low, the price may at least bounce back up in the middle of the day which is bullish to the broad market.

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Now let’s check out how overbought the market is.

0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals

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0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals

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Number of SPX stocks closed above MA10, courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com.

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13 comments:

  1. Another great insight. I have been following your blog since last week, and starting this week I have begun to turn my huuuge losses around and have been learning much from your charts. THANK YOU

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  2. Yong, should the second line up top read

    Albeit the market declined, it is still OVERBOUGHT over either the short term or the intermediate term, therefore a pullback is still needed?

    Thanks, great job as usual.

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  3. Dang I hope the third time is a charm play isnt in effect. We are really wedged btw 2 levels of resistance.

    As much I dont want to admit it, the XLF chart does leave the possibility of a move up tomorrow.

    I wonder though if the MM's wouldnt want to kill off some calls though.

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  4. Put/Call ratio is way too bullish and I doubt they'll close it green tomorrow but who knows.

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  5. It is def way too bullish. I just cant see why they would want to pay off the calls.

    But then again I thought this rally was toast on tues/ wednesday.

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  6. Thanks. It should be OVERBOUGHT.

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  7. That looks like a bearish descending triangle on SPY 15-minute chart, rather than a pennant.

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  8. Today is the quadruple witch. Unless it closes above or below any major support today is not indication for Monday. My guess it will stay in the trading range all day and at close.

    Roxy

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  9. Yes, strictly speaking, it's Descending Triangle, but also strictly speaking Descending Triangle is actually a continuation pattern, not a reversal pattern.

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  10. SPX closed below 775 so it seems like 750 is next to test.

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  11. I would say SPX to test 700 before testing 800. Double top at 800 could be possibility. If not it goes way higher like 900.

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  12. I'd be cautious here as a bear. I agree with you, Double Top is more likely.

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  13. Much more useful info i get from here.Thanks for writing.

    Boise real estate

    ReplyDelete

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