Live Update

Friday, April 10, 2009

NET Institutional buying & Selling

Bellow is an excerpt from Thursday’s report. Marty the owner of has been mentioning this for a couple of weeks. Well, YMYD, I for myself truly believe that something fishy is going on. But as I’ve been saying whether I believe this rally or not, I’ll sure let the market go first…

"NET" Institutional Buying & Selling had an extreme reading 6 TIMES within 16 trading days. We do not normally get 1 such extreme reading until AFTER a new Bull market is started.  The last time this happened was two months after the market retested is lows in 2003.  This is the result of a government related "induction".  A Red  Flag.  These extreme high readings are unprecedented and a real concern given that the economy, Banking problems, and unemployment have not even turned around yet.  What's going on here? ... It actually happened again on Monday ... Net Institutional Buying was over the 3500 level.  It did NOT happen even once during the last Bear Market and only 2 times during the last Bull Market.  This is an obvious attempt to push the market higher and have everyone believe that the Bear Market is over.   It is NOT over ... I'll repeat that, it is not over.  What is also bothersome, is that these Institutional Buying levels are getting so little bang for the buck.   What happens when they can't or don't sustain these levels?



  1. Cobra.

    I wish I could find your blog earlier. I highly value your market wrap and I read them everyday along with Tim knight's Slope of Hope.

    Just say thank you and I'm referring your site to anyone I know who has an interest in trading.


    frank zhao

  2. Cobra,

    I look forward to your daily analysis 5 days a week. But it truly makes my day when you give us something additional in between. Hearty thanks, keep up the good work!

  3. Cobra,
    What is happening now is the stock manipulation by Banks and Treasury to push the stocks as high as possible, so banks can sell more shares to the public (at the best possible prices) and have enough funds to pass the stress test. They used the public funds, the TARP money and money tunneled by the AIG goverment injections (banks being on the wining side of AIG contracts) to buy back bank stocks, produce a breakout and dupe institutional and retail investors into a rally. The plan succeded probably better than expected. However, he higher we go now, the more we will fall later as this is not a free market game. Just a play on sentiment.

    BTW, Eric is wrong with his sentiment reading. I follow sentimentrader charts for a few years now and the sentiments are at the top levels. Rydex total leveraged chart is the best to follow (for subscribers only). Yes, there could be some more buying left but the shorts are devastated (the lowest positions in several years) and will reload as some point (probably on the first sighn of weakness). That will push this rally over.

  4. One more thing: GS will anounce earnings on 4/14 and start share sale soon after. As soon as that is over and GS' TARP money is repaid, a big crash will commence. Everyone knows that GS' people rule this country and issue marching orders for the economy. The orders are different depending if GS' traders are long or short. Unfortunately, there is little small investors can do about it.

  5. Yes, thanks, I know there're few bears interested in Rydex bear fund now.

  6. "What happens when they can't or don't sustain these levels?"


    "Look out below?" O_o

  7. Why would anyone want to buy GS at Friday's closing price given that there is a huge share sale pending very soon? Don't you think that Wall Street Analysts will be peppering GS management during Tuesday's conference call on dilution? Look for Analysts DOWNGRADEs on GS after Tuesday's conference call.

    Get short GS or buy some May PUTS.

    Target: $100.00 by the end of April.

  8. I don't think we have to see a recovery in employment and GDP before we will see a bottom in the market. Both of these are leading indicators, usually 6-12 months before peak in unemployment will be the market bottom. So it is not impossible that we have seen the bottom.

  9. The only reason anyone would get long GS on friday is to tide the wave until teusday (when they report). Then sell, and buy puts.

  10. Hey..Nee Ho Ma.. Peter.. been waiting for your sell signal.. not more neutrals.. confirms what I see. I went short via faz, rfn and skf .. short oil dto.. two days ago. Will share something with your readers.. go to Jim Willie, Golden Jackass or Hat trick newsletter..
    By: Nadeem_Walayat..Editor of Market Oracle.

    Jim Willie of the Hat trick Newsletter has just sent an urgent message of a potential imminent big bank failure that would be expected to hit the financial markets hard - message as follows - just got word from a reliable source with an excellent track record
    he calls me every several weeks when he has something very critical to share
    he wants me to put the word out and to see what comes back to confirm or add to the story
    an extremely large overnight bank transaction loan failed last night, gathering major attention
    it started in US west coast, went to Hong Kong, then Singapore, then London
    it failed in London, by that is meant no return was given on the overnight loan
    he guessed the size was something like $10 to $30 billion
    he suspected (without much direct evidence) that it was Citigroup
    he believes the failing bank is a London subsidiary for a giant US-based bank
    he likened it to a plumbing blockage with extreme backup consequences
    he expects a ripple effect to cause shock waves, or a flood of sewage
    we wondered if it could have Commercial Paper consequences, since often used in overnights
    he has five expert friends watching for specific market reactions, like LIBOR

    so be on the lookout
    in February, this source said that in May June timeframe, foreign creditors
    will put the screws to the US bankers, who are recognized as totally corrupt, NOW HOW CAN THAT BE?
    foreigner big bankers want to remove some power levers from US control

    my source remains anonymous
    / jim
    By Nadeem Walayat

    Clayton Tom



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