Live Update

Saturday, April 4, 2009

A trend table will be used from now on

  Trend Momentum Comments - Click here for how signals are used. Warning: This is NOT a trading recommendation!
Long-term Down    
Intermediate Up Overbought Hold long.
Short-term Up Overbought May need take profits.
Report Focused On Buyable dip or the market topped?
Today’s Summary A trend table is needed to prevent confusion.

From comments I saw some confusions here, so from now on, I’ll use a trend table like above to avoid confusions. As this is just a market recap not a trading recommendation report, so more often than not the focus is about finding the top or the bottom and therefore it may seem like it is sometimes against the current trend. So it’s necessary to have a trend table here to make it clear what the current best trading action is so as to separate it from what the report is mainly focused on.

I think I said I’d buy dip here 03/23/2009 Market Recap: Very Short-term Overbought although I didn’t believe this rally and till now I still don’t believe it. But the emotion is the emotion, the trade is the trade, they’re totally two different things. Whether I believe it or not, I’ve kept saying that I don’t argue with the signals. And here is how I “don’t argue with the signals”, Don't know what I say everyday? Here's a simple version.

13 comments:

  1. Hi Cobra,

    It was very helpful you hints yesterday. Tonight I was playing with some of those recommended sentiment indicators. I found that MACD is very handful to find turning points. Zweig is very accurate when the lines are crossing.

    At least for me, we are having only consolidation noise (ADX is almost 20). The truth is still behind the scenes and it is very nasty.

    Another horrible suckers rally!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Didn't do too well with my little short positions. We'll see what market brings next week.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Cobra

    I like the summary table but hope you will continue to present the details that lead you to the summary each day. It's a great service you provide to your readers.

    thanks again

    Maximus
    http://4best4worst.wordpress.com/

    ReplyDelete
  4. Thanks maximus, the summary table is an addition. Details will be posted as usual.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Cobra,
    What you make of the low $CPC values? The 20 day SMA is lowest in 3 years!
    Also, what is the scale on the $CPC chart 8.1.2? I liked the -0.11 line predicting tops, but can't translate to current CPC values.
    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  6. Lowest in 3 years is nothing, CPC may go to zero, haven't you heard that the worst is over? With 4T$ printed and bank no longer has to write down, don't you think we're going to see a new high pretty soon (Dow 15,000 maybe?) and this will be the most bullish bull market ever? :-)

    I cannot translate -0.11 to CPC value, because at different time the value is differnt. It's NORMALIZED CPC, i.e. it's a relative value.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Cobra,
    I don't know if you are serious about $4T or just sarcastic.
    What I do know, that stocks surged on 9/22/09 on TARP money printing and short ban. That was a great selling opportunity that I missed and lost a lot. Now it feels just like then. This time I'm selling.
    My sentiment indicators are showing a major top or very close to one (within a couple of weeks).

    ReplyDelete
  8. How can you NOT know that Cobra was being sarcastic? If someone made such a statement seriously, would you really read their trading blog?!


    Cobra, thank you for the new Trend Table. It looks like an excellent addition to your blog!

    ReplyDelete
  9. Yeah, I remember Sep last year very well. But now it's a little different. Yes, I believe a top is closing but this is April, the 3rd most bullish month in a year, remember April last year? So no hurry in selling, let's wait for solid trend change signals before doing something naughty.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Cobra,

    Your commentary is always helpful and CPC analysis is certainly helped me a lot. Keep up the good work.

    Having said that, you stated that April is the 3rd most bullish month - I believe that the first two are November and December. Please correct me if I am wrong. Also, where can I get the list of bullish/bearish months in the right order?

    Thanks a lot for your daily analysis. It is one of the best available soruce of information.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Cobra,

    Your commentary is always helpful and CPC analysis is certainly helped me a lot. Keep up the good work.

    Having said that, you stated that April is the 3rd most bullish month - I believe that the first two are November and December. Please correct me if I am wrong. Also, where can I get the list of bullish/bearish months in the right order?

    Thanks a lot for your daily analysis. It is one of the best available soruce of information.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Yeah, Nov and Dec. But I don't have the right order, I think might be Dec, Nov, Apr. I forgot where I saw that Apr is the 3rd most bullish month in a year.

    ReplyDelete

Disclaimer

The information contained on this website and from any communication related to the author’s blog and chartbook is for information purposes only. The chart analysis and the market recap do not hold out as providing any financial, legal, investment, or other advice. In addition, no suggestion or advice is offered regarding the nature, profitability, suitability, sustainability of any particular trading practice or investment strategy. The materials on this website do not constitute offer or advice and you should not rely on the information here to make or refrain from making any decision or take or refrain from taking any action. It is up to the visitors to make their own decisions, or to consult with a registered professional financial advisor.

This websites provides third-party websites for your convenience but the author does not endorse, approve, or certify the information on other websites, nor does the author take responsibility for a part or all materials on the third-party websites which are not maintained by the author.