Live Update

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

11/04/2009 Market Recap: 3 vs 1 Bear Won?


The rebound was week, 3 up days in a row couldn't recover the previous 1 day loss, therefore it could be a sellable bounce.

  TREND MOMENTUM EMOTION COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Up   Disbelieve  
Intermediate Down Neutral  
Short-term *Up Neutral Doubt  
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE INSTRUCTION STOP LOSS Mechanic trading signals for reference only.
Back tested since 2002.
ST Model   Short if 11/02 low is taken. Officially in downtrend.
Reversal Bar      
NYMO Sell 10/21 S *Adjust Stop Loss *11/04 High


VIX ENV        


Nothing new. The bear’s hope is 6.3.2b Major Distribution Day Watch, there could be the 3rd Major Distribution Day. The bull’s hope is 1.1.4 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals, lots of bottom signals.

All my 3 most recent reports have presented enough evidences for bulls to rally sharply but so far the bounce was weak. 7.1.0 Use n vs n Rule to Identify a Trend Change,  up 3 days in a row couldn't recover the previous 1 day loss therefore it looks like a sellable bounce to me now.


Take a look at the “Indices Pair”, the leading indices still lag. (The huge rally in TRAN yesterday was due to Warren Buffett’s buyout, but today there’s no follow-through, so I cannot say TRAN is bullish.)


Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows from, as we all know that the liquidity injected by Fed was the major force for the March rally. Now the liquidity dropped to a critical position, if it breakdown below the July low then bears will have yet another evidence (besides the weak rally) that indeed this time is different. I’ll keep you informed as soon as the liquidity chart breaks down.




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