Live Update

Thursday, November 19, 2009

11/19/2009 Market Recap: Bullish Sentiment


Sentiment is a little too bullish so don't be too bullish.

  TREND MOMENTUM EMOTION COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Up   Disbelieve  
Intermediate Down Neutral  
Short-term *Down Neutral    
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE INSTRUCTION STOP LOSS Mechanic trading signals for reference only.
Back tested since 2002.
ST Model 11/17 L *Adjust Stop Loss *11/19 Low


Reversal Bar  


NYMO Sell   *Sell short if Open > Close tomorrow


VIX ENV        
Patterns ect.         


The pullback today may mean nothing and because tomorrow is Friday and OE so probably we won’t see any follow-through. However from the sentiment survey and the Rydex Fund traders’ actions, the retailers are a little too bullish, so don’t get too bullish here especially if the market rebound huge tomorrow. Overall, I still maintain the call for “consolidation then pullback”.

Investor's Intelligence Sentiment Survey.




Rydex Fund traders buying bullish fund to bearish fund ratio.


Pay attention to the following charts tomorrow:

1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily), the bull’s hope is SOX rises sharply starting from tomorrow otherwise it looks almost a sure thing that a negative divergence exists between COMPQ and SOX. This usually means an important top.


2.8.0 SPX:CPCE, breakout trend line, if held tomorrow, then at least we’re at a short-term top.


6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch, another top signal. Besides, NYMO Sell setup will be confirmed if Open > Close tomorrow. This setup has a 65% winning rate and 5.2 gain/loss ratio, so it’s a fairly decent setup.




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