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Monday, November 1, 2010

11/01/2010 After Bell Quick Summary

The bottom line, the short-term trend is, hmm, not clear. I hold short position overnight because the mini price target has not met, not because it’s safe to hold overnight.

Mixed signals toward tomorrow, I prefer a little down though.

When both VIX and SPY closed in green on the same day, 10 out of 14 times recently a red day the next day.


Also when both VIX and SPX closed in green on the same day, short at today’s close and cover on the first day that not both VIX and SPX close in green since 1990, you have a little better than 50% chances (59% actually).


On the other hand, when both VIX and SPY closed in green for 3 consecutive days, long at today’s close and sell on the first day that not both VIX and SPY close in green since 1990, surprisingly, you have 75% chances. The problem is that samples are a little too small and I don’t think SPY dividend is adjusted on the StockFinder software I’m using for the back test. And this is why I said above that I’m a little little bit bearish biased toward tomorrow.


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