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Monday, March 21, 2011

03/21/2011 Market Recap: Head and Shoulders Bottom?

  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 5 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
03/16-03/21 03/19 : 03/21 Next pivot date: 03/21
BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
02/23 Market Recap: Pullback could last 4 weeks, then 02/18 highs will be revisited.
03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months.
BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34).
03/18 Market Recap: Could see lower low ahead.
My Thoughts The pullback since 02/22 may last but the 02/18 high will be revisited in 69 calendar days on average.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 02/24 S N/A Short is for aggressive traders only.
ST Model   *Short if SPY tomorrow open > tomorrow close. The stop loss is 1.9*ATR(10).
Short-term *UP? *03/07 High I hold trapped short position overnight.

SHORT-TERM: COULD BE HEAD AND SHOULDERS BOTTOM BREAKOUT, TARGET $134.44

Two cents:

  1. Short-term trend is up, not confirmed but my guess is there could be more on the upside.
  2. Short-term, I’ll buy on strength only, not buy dip. Intermediate-term still is in downtrend, maintain the forecast for calling a lower low ahead.

For 2 reasons,  I guess there could be more on the upside.

  • Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout. I don’t essentially believe the target but won’t deny this could be a bullish pattern either.

1

  • INDU Leads Market. Since INDU broke above MA(50) today so expect the SPX to follow soon.

2

In addition, there’re two things I’d like to remind you today:

The long setups mentioned on 03/16, some met the close condition.

3

There is a potential short setup which surprisingly works well. Personally, I don’t like this kind of setup though.

4

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH IN 3 TO 6 MONTHS

Combine the study mentioned in 02/23 Market Recap and 03/11 Market Recap, I still believe that 02/18 high will be revisited.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH THE NEXT WEEK

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

  1. Week after Triple Witching, Dow down 15 of last 23, but rallied 4.9% in 2000, 3.1% in 2007 and 6.8% in 2009.
  2. March historically weak later in the month.

For March seasonality chart please refer to 03/01 Market Recap.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

TREND COMMENT
QQQQ&Weekly DOWN
IWM & Weekly UP
SSEC & Weekly UP
EEM & Weekly DOWN
XIU & Weekly UP
TLT & Weekly UP
FXE & Weekly UP
GLD & Weekly UP
GDX & Weekly 03/15 S
USO & Weekly UP
XLE & Weekly UP
XLF & Weekly DOWN
IYR & Weekly UP
XLB & Weekly DOWN
DBA & Weekly DOWN

  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  3. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  4. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
Posted by Cobra at 5:46 PM
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