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SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE NEW HIGH TOMORROW, BUT BEWARE OF THE GENERAL NFP DAY PATTERN
Still nothing to say, so I’ll skip today’s After Bell Quick Summary. The Tuesday strong up has no follow through till now so I cannot exclude the possibility that today’s half day rebound is just to test the previous high, therefore the short-term direction is not very clear and bears still have a glimmer of hope.
About tomorrow’s Non Farm Payroll, three things for your attention:
- Could gap up tomorrow morning, at least there’ll be a higher high (also means a new high) because INDU had a new high today. (Yes, I’ve noticed that SPX still owns INDU a lower low, that is remained to be seen.)
- Non Farm Payroll day is generally bullish.
- Non Farm Payroll day intraday pattern usually is open high go lower or open low go higher. The screenshot below is from Bespoke.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE
Intermediate-term still in wait and see mode, temporarily bearish biased, see 01/28 Market Recap for more details.
SEASONALITY: BULLISH TUESDAY
According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, first day trading in February, Dow and S&P up 7 of last 8, NASDAQ up 6 years in a row.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
| SIGNAL | COMMENT | |
| QQQQ | 01/28 S | |
| NDX Weekly | UP | BPNDX is way too overbought. |
| IWM | ||
| IWM Weekly | DOWN | |
| CHINA | ||
| CHINA Weekly | DOWN | |
| EEM | ChiOsc is little too low. | |
| EEM Weekly | DOWN | |
| XIU.TO | 01/06 S | |
| XIU.TO Weekly | UP | |
| TLT | 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Symmetrical Triangle? So bond should keep falling? | |
| TLT Weekly | ? | |
| FXE | ||
| FXE Weekly | UP | |
| GLD | ||
| GLD Weekly | DOWN | STO is way too oversold, led to a rebound the last 2 times. |
| GDX | *02/03 L | |
| GDX Weekly | DOWN | |
| USO | ||
| WTIC Weekly | UP | |
| XLE | 01/25 S | |
| XLE Weekly | UP | |
| XLF | 10/15 L | |
| XLF Weekly | UP | Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area. |
| IYR | ||
| IYR Weekly | UP | |
| XLB | 02/01 L | |
| XLB Weekly | DOWN | BPMATE is way too overbought. |
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.
