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SHORT-TERM: COULD JUST BE A PULLBACK, MAY SEE NEW HIGH TOMORROW
Still not much to say, so I’ll skip today’s After Bell Quick Summary.
Two cents:
- The pullback we saw today could just be a pullback instead of a start of something new.
- May see a new high on SPX tomorrow. (May pullback after the new high though)
Why the pullback we saw today could just be a pullback? Let me borrow one of the major rules from Elliott Wave Theory here: because the price overlaps, so this unlikely is an impulse wave down which in another word is this might not be the start of a much anticipated correction.
Why we may see a new high tomorrow? Because INDU has a new high today and since “INDU Leads Market”, I’ll assume SPX would follow tomorrow? (Not a solid reasoning, I know, but since the trend is up so always assume the market will have a new high the next day would make me look smart, well most of the time, LOL)
So, my guess is we’ll see a rebound to a new high tomorrow, then probably another pullback (not sure), at least a few days consolidation (means not up much). The reasoning is VIX might rebound, see chart below.
The last chart is for info only, sample too small but I know some of you would ask. INDU up 8 days in a row, short at today’s close and cover at the very first down day since 1999, the winning rate is 100% but only 4 cases.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WHETHER THIS IS PRIMARY 3 OF 3 TO GALAXY FAR FAR AWAY WE MAY KNOW WITHIN 2 WEEKS
See 02/04 Market Recap for more details.
SEASONALITY: BEARISH THE NEXT WEEK FOR NASDAQ, FEBRUARY SEASONALITY IS GENERALLY NOT BULLISH
See 02/04 Market Recap for more details.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
| SIGNAL | COMMENT | |
| QQQQ | 01/28 S | |
| NDX Weekly | UP | BPNDX is way too overbought. |
| IWM | ||
| IWM Weekly | DOWN | |
| CHINA | ||
| CHINA Weekly | DOWN | |
| EEM | ||
| EEM Weekly | DOWN | |
| XIU.TO | 02/04 L | TOADV MA(10) is a little too high, all led to a pullback of some kind recently. |
| XIU.TO Weekly | UP | |
| TLT | ||
| TLT Weekly | DOWN | |
| FXE | ||
| FXE Weekly | UP | |
| GLD | ||
| GLD Weekly | DOWN | STO is way too oversold, led to a rebound the last 2 times. |
| GDX | 02/03 L | |
| GDX Weekly | DOWN | |
| USO | ||
| WTIC Weekly | UP | |
| XLE | *02/09 S | |
| XLE Weekly | UP | Too far above MA(200). |
| XLF | 10/15 L | |
| XLF Weekly | UP | Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area. |
| IYR | ||
| IYR Weekly | UP | |
| XLB | *02/09 S | |
| XLB Weekly | DOWN | BPMATE is way too overbought. |
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.
