02/14/2011 Market Recap: Bearish Rising Wedge

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 02/10-/13,02/20 02/18 : 02/19 02/13,02/19 Next pivot date: 02/20

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Cup with Handle, target 1428. BEARISH 01/07 Market Recap: Strong Off-Season means poor Earning Season. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: BPSPX is way too overbought. 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34). 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Price is now too high above MA(200). *02/14 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb Money Confidence spread is too large.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A ST Model 02/11 L *breakeven *The model sets breakeven stop loss today, so again no chance to follow. The last 2 times, it was stopped out the next day, let’s see if history repeats again. Short-term N/A N/A Trend is UP. I hold partial long position overnight.

My Thoughts I’m almost convinced that this could be a primary 3 of 3 up to much much higher.

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE SOME WEAKNESS AHEAD

Nothing to say today, so I’ll skip today’s After Bell Quick Summary. The SPY intraday chart looks like a bearish Rising Wedge in the forming (also there’s a smaller Rising Wedge inside a bigger one), so we may see some weakness ahead. The overall trend is of course, up and as mentioned in 02/11 Market Recap, this week holds the key, so let’s wait and see.

The Smart/Dumb Money Confidence spread is again at an extreme level, especially the Smart Money Confidence which is now at the lowest lever since year 2007. Simply judging by the past patterns however, such an extreme was not necessarily bearish though as it may take some time to drag down the overall market, so again, we’ll have to wait and see.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WHETHER THIS IS PRIMARY 3 OF 3 TO GALAXY FAR FAR AWAY WE MAY KNOW THIS WEEK

See 02/04 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH MONDAY AND FRIDAY

See 02/11 Market Recap for more details.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	01/28 S
NDX Weekly	UP	BPNDX is way too overbought. Too far above MA(200).
IWM
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly	DOWN
EEM
EEM Weekly	DOWN
XIU.TO	02/04 L	TOADV MA(10) is a little too high, all led to a pullback of some kind recently.
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT
TLT Weekly	DOWN
FXE		Watch for possible 1-2-3 trend change to down from up.
FXE Weekly	UP
GLD
GLD Weekly	DOWN
GDX	02/03 L
GDX Weekly	DOWN
USO
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	02/09 S
XLE Weekly	UP	Too far above MA(200).
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	UP	Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area.
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP
XLB	02/09 S
XLB Weekly	UP	BPMATE is way too overbought.

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.