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SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE REBOUND TOMORROW
All I wanted to say are already in today’s After Bell Quick Summary, since the price overlaps so it doesn’t look like a big correction has started. And according to the Presidents day seasonality chart below below, tomorrow could most likely close in green, plus for 5 consecutive gap down days, bears still couldn’t push bulls down the hill, so chances are better and better that bulls may counter-strike. All in all, my guess is at least yesterday’s high will be retested tomorrow.
On a little bit longer than tomorrow, I’ll temporarily maintain the forecast for calling the week the key week as mentioned in 02/11 Market Recap. The chart below, according to Schaeffer, says that hedge fund bought lots of index put therefore is in accumulation mode, so it’s bullish. But personally, I think the red line has reached a level that cannot be sustained, so although it does mean bullish for now but it also implies that the rally could already be in its final stage. Of course, I’m not sure if this final stage means this week. Trading wise, it doesn’t matter to me though, as whenever the short-term model begins to happily hold short position overnight (pay attention to “happily”, it’s not when I say “Hold trapped short position overnight”), it’s most likely the time the real pullback has started because the model simply follows the market (therefore couldn’t be too wrong).
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WHETHER THIS IS PRIMARY 3 OF 3 TO GALAXY FAR FAR AWAY WE MAY KNOW THIS WEEK
See 02/04 Market Recap for more details.
SEASONALITY: BEARISH MONDAY AND FRIDAY
See 02/11 Market Recap for more details.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
| SIGNAL | COMMENT | |
| QQQQ | 01/28 S | |
| NDX Weekly | UP | BPNDX is way too overbought. Too far above MA(200). |
| IWM | ||
| IWM Weekly | UP | |
| CHINA | ||
| CHINA Weekly | *UP? | *No higher low yet but the rebound is so strong so could be in uptrend now. |
| EEM | ||
| EEM Weekly | DOWN | |
| XIU.TO | 02/04 L | TOADV MA(10) is a little too high, all led to a pullback of some kind recently. |
| XIU.TO Weekly | UP | |
| TLT | ||
| TLT Weekly | DOWN | |
| FXE | Watch for possible 1-2-3 trend change to down from up. | |
| FXE Weekly | UP | |
| GLD | ||
| GLD Weekly | DOWN | |
| GDX | 02/03 L | |
| GDX Weekly | DOWN | |
| USO | *ChiOsc is way too low. | |
| WTIC Weekly | UP | |
| XLE | 02/09 S | |
| XLE Weekly | UP | Too far above MA(200). |
| XLF | 10/15 L | |
| XLF Weekly | UP | Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area. |
| IYR | ||
| IYR Weekly | UP | |
| XLB | 02/09 S | |
| XLB Weekly | UP | BPMATE is way too overbought. |
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.
