SHORT-TERM: BEAR'S BEST BET TOMORROW IS THE SEASONALITY
Another bullish reversal day today. This usually is a very bullish sign so chances are good that we’ll see more upside ahead. Supporting this view is the VIX bearish reversal bar which, if history repeats, should mean that VIX will have further pullbacks and therefore is bullish for SPX.
Not sure about tomorrow, by default, it should be up of course, but seasonality wise, according to Stock Trader’s Almanac, day before Presidents Day weekend, SPX down 16 of last 19 and February Expiration Day, Dow down 7 of last 11, should be very bear friendly. The chart below from another angle shows the bearish seasonality for tomorrow as it could be the most bearish day in February.
In addition to the seasonality, here’s a small statistics (Thanks for a reader reminding me): SPY closes above MA(5) for 13 days in a row, short at today’s close and cover at the very first down day since 1991, you’d have 71% chances. Further more, the back test summary below, if you read carefully, you’ll find, interestingly, all losing trades were very very bullish cases that on average they’re up 6.8 more trading day! So think twice before shorting this crazy bull market.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WHETHER THIS IS PRIMARY 3 OF 3 TO GALAXY FAR FAR AWAY WE MAY KNOW THIS WEEK
See 02/04 Market Recap for more details.
SEASONALITY: BEARISH MONDAY AND FRIDAY
See 02/11 Market Recap for more details.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
|NDX Weekly||UP||BPNDX is way too overbought. Too far above MA(200).|
|CHINA Weekly||UP||No higher low yet but the rebound is so strong so could be in uptrend now.|
|XIU.TO||02/04 L||TOADV MA(10) is a little too high, all led to a pullback of some kind recently.|
|FXE||Watch for possible 1-2-3 trend change to down from up.|
|XLE Weekly||UP||Too far above MA(200).|
|XLF Weekly||UP||Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area.|
|XLB Weekly||UP||BPMATE is way too overbought.|
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.