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Wednesday, February 16, 2011

02/16/2011 Market Recap: More on the upside, at least no big pullback?

  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 3 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
02/10-/13,02/20 02/18 : 02/19 02/13,02/19 Next pivot date: 02/20
BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Cup with Handle, target 1428.
BEARISH 01/07 Market Recap: Strong Off-Season means poor Earning Season.
4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: BPSPX is way too overbought.
4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34).
4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Price is now too high above MA(200).
02/14 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb Money Confidence spread is too large.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A
ST Model 02/11 L breakeven Stopped out long position on 02/15 flat.
Short-term N/A N/A Trend is UP. I hold no position overnight.
My Thoughts I’m almost convinced that this could be a primary 3 of 3 up to much much higher.

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE MORE ON THE UPSIDE, AT LEAST DON’T EXPECT BIG PULLBACK

Nothing to say today so I’ll skip today’s After Bell Quick Summary. Although on SPY 60 min chart the Bearish Rising Wedge still looks valid, so officially, we have to wait until tomorrow to get the complete story. However, the VIX simply rose too fast those days even the market didn’t pullback much. This means people are cautious and thus bought lots of put to hedge, so as the result, it actually not easy for the market to drop hard from here. The chart below is not very solid proof but it roughly tells my idea: Whenever VIX:VXV ratio >= 9.1, it had only one case recently that there’s a little more pullbacks ahead.

2

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WHETHER THIS IS PRIMARY 3 OF 3 TO GALAXY FAR FAR AWAY WE MAY KNOW THIS WEEK

See 02/04 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH MONDAY AND FRIDAY

See 02/11 Market Recap for more details.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

SIGNAL COMMENT
QQQQ 01/28 S
NDX Weekly UP BPNDX is way too overbought. Too far above MA(200).
IWM
IWM Weekly UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly UP No higher low yet but the rebound is so strong so could be in uptrend now.
EEM
EEM Weekly DOWN
XIU.TO 02/04 L TOADV MA(10) is a little too high, all led to a pullback of some kind recently.
XIU.TO Weekly UP
TLT
TLT Weekly DOWN
FXE Watch for possible 1-2-3 trend change to down from up.
FXE Weekly UP
GLD
GLD Weekly DOWN
GDX 02/03 L
GDX Weekly DOWN
USO ChiOsc is way too low.
WTIC Weekly UP
XLE 02/09 S
XLE Weekly UP Too far above MA(200).
XLF 10/15 L
XLF Weekly UP Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area.
IYR
IYR Weekly UP
XLB 02/09 S
XLB Weekly UP BPMATE is way too overbought.

  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
  5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
  6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.
Posted by Cobra at 6:00 PM
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