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Monday, September 14, 2009

09/14/2009 Market Recap: Trading Setup for IWM up 6 days in a row


SPX closed above 1044 resistance but INDU lags.

Expect a at least a short-term pullback.

  Trend Momentum Comments - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Up    
Intermediate Up Neutral  
Short-term Up Neutral  
My Emotion Wait   Could repeat what happened after 8/17, so be careful bears.


1.0.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly), closed above 1044 which means that there is not much resistance until 1200ish. Still 0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals has too much negative divergence, therefore bulls should be careful.


1.2.0 INDU Leads Market, INDU has yet confirmed the SPX new high.



1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min), too much negative divergence plus reasons mentioned in the After Bell Quick Summary, could mean a pullback at least short-term.


1.3.0 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Daily), up 7 days in a row. Whenever IWM is up 6 days in a row, shorts on the 7th day's open, exits at any profits, from the back test results below we can see that the success rate is very high. This could mean that IWM is due for a pullback.  By the way, the QQQQ too is up 7 days in a row, but short even at today’s close would most likely result in a losing trade, so up n days in a row is not a good universal reason to short stocks.


The chart below is a 2 years visual back test for IWM. Surprisingly, quite often IWM up 6 days in a row was an intermediate-term market top.


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