Live Update

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

09/29/2009 Market Recap: All About the Dollar


No conclusion tomorrow. Chart pattern points to the downside but US$ may pullback which could lift the market.

  TREND MOMENTUM   COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Up      
Intermediate Up Neutral    
Short-term Up Neutral    
SETUP DATE TRADE STOP LOSS Mechanic trading signals for reference only. Back tested since 2002.
SPX Major Swing 08/21 Buy next open 09/25 Low Win: 41%, Gain/Loss Ratio: 2.9, Ann Return/Trade: 55% yr


1.2.1 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm:

  1. BPSPX, NYA200R, NYHILO too high. There was about 10% correction in year 2004 when these 3 were this high.
  2. TRAN hasn’t confirmed the INDU’s high yet.


As mentioned in the After Bell Quick Summary, a reversal day on SPY daily chart may mean that it’ll be up huge but in most cases there were pullbacks or some consolidation then pullback. 1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), chart pattern wise, could be a Head and Shoulders Top in the forming so it also argues a possible further pullback.


On the other hand, this time, US$ is bulls’ hope: 3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily), solid black bar may mean a pullback of the US$ and 3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily), hollow red bar may mean that oil could rebound. These 2 factors are “bull friendly”.

UUPDaily USODaily

The conclusion is no conclusion. Let’s see how the market unfolds tomorrow.


If there’s no wonder tomorrow, the it’ll be the SPX’s 7th straight up months. The chart below is all I could get from about all the past cases when SPX was up more than 7 months in a row. Period.


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