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Wednesday, September 23, 2009

09/23/2009 Market Recap: Bearish reversal but follow-through is needed


One day doesn't a trend make.

It's possible a short-term top is very close or already passed.

  Trend Momentum Comments - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Up    
Intermediate Up Neutral  
Short-term Up Neutral  
My Emotion Wait    


0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, a Bearish Reversal Bar was formed today but most importantly a follow-through is needed. Otherwise it’s just an one day wonder. Theoretically as long as $99.10 holds, intermediate-term still is up.



My major view is: 1.1.3 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals and 7.3.2 SPX Cycle Watch (60 min). One says a top should be close whenever a black bar is formed and one says the market may already be topped.

Well, is today really a short-term top? Theoretically it’s not confirmed until the green line in chart 1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min) is broken. Pay attention to ChiOsc below, way too low, so SPY may rebound at least tomorrow morning. 1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min) should provide more clear view about the possibility of a rebound tomorrow morning. Anyway, the market usually needs a few days to reveal its true direction after the Fed day.

SPY30min SPY15min


6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch, this chart is bearish as NYMO is negative while SPX is making a new high. For some technical reasons, I cannot back test this kind of setup yet, just a quick glance shows that the setup may not suitable for the bull market. And that’s why I simply put this chart under “Interesting Charts” for your info only.


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