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Thursday, May 6, 2010

05/06/2010 After Bell Quick Summary

Well, all charts were messed up, I don’t know how long it will take to make all those charts readable especially the intraday charts. Right now, for sure I can point out “hundreds” of charts arguing for a rebound and perhaps a capitulation bottom, but they’re all based on the principle that “history repeats itself”, I don’t know if they’re of any use for now, as definitely we are MAKING THE HISTORY. I agree what Jason of sentimentrader said in the special intraday report today:

The typical pattern in cases like this is a very short-term bounce of 1-3 days, then a re-test of the panic low.  Even in "successful" retests where the panic marks some kind of washout bottom, the panic low is often violated by a small amount.

… … this kind of thing almost always results in several large funds being forced to liquidate - this is why we often get the initial rebound, but then more selling pressure.  I can't imagine that doesn't happen this time too.

Look at how violently the Carry Trade was unwound right before the market crashed. Something terrible must have happened forcing some big funds to liquid at any cost! I sincerely hope this was just an one day event or the better, an accident. But as a trader, I never rely on hope that this time may be different, instead I admit what the charts, cold blooded charts, are telling me that technical damages were done and it will take nobody knows for how long, to recover all those wounds. So trade carefully, even you really really believe this was a capitulation and it’s your once in a life time to retire earlier.


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