05/25/2010 Market Recap: Will the 3rd time be the charm?

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in SELL mode Short-term 1 of 1 are SELL 4 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in SELL mode

BULLISH 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Bottomed? 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high. 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Oversold. 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPC MA(5) too high. 8.1.1 Normalized NATV/NYTV: Bottomed?  6.3.2c Major Distribution Day Watch: Bottomed? 05/20 Market Recap: Intermediate-term Indicator Score from sentimentrader is too low. *0.1.3 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals: NYDNV too high. BEARISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Ascending Broadening Wedge? Target: 1008 to 1019. 6.4.1 Extreme NYADV Readings Watch: Lower close ahead. 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Lower low ahead. CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU, RSP ST Model Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell     Non-Stop 05/11 S N/A For general direction guide only. Others       OTHER ETFs TREND *DTFMS COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ DOWN     IWM DOWN     CHINA DOWN BUY 2 green bar in a row usually means more on the upside. EMERGING DOWN   Bearish 1-2-3 formation breakdown, target: $32.13 EUROPEAN DOWN   4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.54. CANADA DOWN   *TOADV MA(10) oversold. BOND UP   *ChiOsc is way too low. EURO DOWN *SELL *ChiOsc is way too high. YEN UP   GOLD UP   4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. GDX UP   OIL DOWN   ENERGY DOWN   Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target: $46.47 FINANCIALS DOWN   Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target: $12.99 REITS DOWN   Head and Shoulders Top? Target: $44.28 MATERIALS DOWN

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals.

SEASONALITY: THE LAST TRADING WEEK OF MONTH WAS BEARISH SINCE AUG 2009 

See 05/21 Market Recap for more details.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: PULLBACK TARGET AROUND 1008 TO 1019, NEXT TIME WINDOW AROUND 06/06

See 05/21 Market Recap for more details.

WARNING: If you don’t understand the true meaning of overbought/oversold, please skip the session below. Generally, you should try your best not to trade against the trend. Trading purely based on overbought/oversold while against the trend is lethal to the health of your account. Before going further, please make sure you understand how to use the table above.
SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE SOME WEAKNESS TOMORROW MORNING

0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, today is the SPY’s 3rd bullish reversal day, the previous 2 were failed, so will the 3rd time be the charm? I’m not sure, but at least the chances should be better than the previous 2 times. I’ll temporarily define this as a short-term rebound if we could see a follow through tomorrow. However since both SPY ST Model and Non-Stop Model are still in SELL mode so the strategy is still to sell the bounce.

 

1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), ChiOsc is way too high. This is the catch for bulls tomorrow, most likely it means some weakness in the morning.