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SHORT-TERM: DOUBT ABOUT THE COMING REBOUND ESPECIALLY ON HOW FAR IT COULD GO
Three cents:
- Although lots of TradingMarkets long setups have been triggered and statistically good chances we’ll see a rebound tomorrow, but somehow, I’m not confident about those setups.
- Even the market does start to rebound tomorrow, I really doubt how far it could go.
- Trading wise, I’ll try to sell the bounce, unless the market rallies huge tomorrow.
I’ve mentioned lots of bullish setups in today’s After Bell Quick Summary and in addition, we may have a potential long setup from Cobra Impulse System (trial version) tomorrow, so it seems that I shouldn’t argue at all about whether there’ll be a rebound or not here. However, the last 2 bars in the SPY 60 min chart make me feel uneasy, so there’re chances that today’s low might be revisited tomorrow morning at least.
Why, if any rebound, I have a doubt about how far it could go?
VIX:VXV is still too low. It’s really hard to image how low this could go if the market rallies really really huge from here.
Institutional Buying and Selling Action from StockTiming. Generally speaking, the market rally is mainly due to lack of institutional distribution, not because of institutional accumulation. So the question is, since the current institutional distribution is still at a very low level, how low could it go if the market rallies really really huge from here?
The last but not the least, about the potential long setup from Cobra Impulse System tomorrow, today’s high must be taken in order for the setup to be valid, otherwise as illustrated in the chart below, chances of being trapped are pretty high. The very common way to trade this kind of setup is to place a buy stop above today’s high, say, SPY, 2 cents above $131.98 is $132.00, so that the position will be automatically filled when SPY breaks above today’s high. If, however, SPY gaps up above today’s high directly tomorrow morning, then in this case, I’ll place the buy stop above the 15 min Open Range high to prevent the potential failed gap up open. Please be noted that the Cobra Impulse System is for fun only, I’m not responsible for any damages such as fire, flood and bankruptcy caused by the system which are very common symptoms when blindly follows it.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH APRIL, SPX TARGET 1352 TO 1381, BEWARE 04/11 TO 04/14 PIVOT DATE
See 04/01 Market Recap for more details.
SEASONALITY: APRIL HAS BEEN HISTORICALLY THE MOST BULLISH MONTH OF THE YEAR
See 04/01 Market Recap for more details. Also according to Stock Trader’s Almanac:
- Monday before expiration, Dow up 14 of last 21, down 4 of last 6.
- April expiration day, Dow up 11 of last 14.
- Income tax deadline, generally bullish, Dow down only 5 times since 1981.
| TREND | COMMENT | |
| QQQ & Weekly | UP | |
| IWM & Weekly | UP | |
| SSEC & Weekly | UP | |
| EEM & Weekly | UP | |
| XIU & Weekly | UP | |
| TLT & Weekly | DOWN | |
| FXE & Weekly | UP | |
| GLD & Weekly | UP | |
| GDX & Weekly | 04/05 L | |
| USO & Weekly | UP | |
| XLE & Weekly | UP | |
| XLF & Weekly | DOWN | |
| IYR & Weekly | UP | |
| XLB & Weekly | UP | |
| DBA & Weekly | UP |
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
