Institutional Buying and Selling Trending from www.stocktiming.com as per request. As suspected, institutional buying decreased dramatically but selling not increased yet.
Disclaimer
The information contained on this website and from any communication related to the author’s blog and chartbook is for information purposes only. The chart analysis and the market recap do not hold out as providing any financial, legal, investment, or other advice. In addition, no suggestion or advice is offered regarding the nature, profitability, suitability, sustainability of any particular trading practice or investment strategy. The materials on this website do not constitute offer or advice and you should not rely on the information here to make or refrain from making any decision or take or refrain from taking any action. It is up to the visitors to make their own decisions, or to consult with a registered professional financial advisor.
This websites provides third-party websites for your convenience but the author does not endorse, approve, or certify the information on other websites, nor does the author take responsibility for a part or all materials on the third-party websites which are not maintained by the author.
Cobra this is your gig and all the hard work you do is grade AAA. I do not want to be offending you by putting up ideas or diverting conversation to a topic, but as a faithful follower of your site, this is where I came across these initial conversations and I hope this is appropriate.
ReplyDeleteI have been following commentary from Uempel, Mr. Panic of 1907/2009 and Mr. Dan Black over the past few months, and was drawn by the conversations of last week. It is very interesting. I don’t know if this is the forum to post this but I would be very appreciative in hearing any thoughts on this.
As Mr Panic was suggesting there appears to be important Fibonacci sequences recurring through this market (SPX) linking highs and lows. Here are my observations (for what they are worth). This market appears to be trading in 21 week cycles made up of 8s and 13s. All fib numbers. Whilst the weekly observations are not all absolute lows or highs, I think they are all significant.
If we link the August 15th weekly high with the 9th Jan High, we have a 21 cycle. This is made up of 8 down, until 10th October (not absolute low, but certainly important), and the remaining 13 weeks up until 9th Jan.
Again if we use the 10th October weekly low and link that to the 6th March low we arrive at the 21 weekly cycle. (13 up until Jan highs, and 8 down until the SPX 666 march low).
Should this cycle repeat 21 weeks after the March lows, would bring us into the last week in July. This current cycle seemed to be in on course. However a 14th week high was established on the week of 12th June. (Thanks to two minute rip at the close of business on June 12th).
Nevertheless, this might not have been that significant, as that week might have seen the top. (Time will tell) Given, Jupiter turning retrograde on the 15th June alongside a 90 day Gann window, I personally think 956 will prove to be a fitting end to the Venus retrograde rally.
If this cycle is to continue, the market should be trying to forge significantly lower for an 8 week period from the 5th June – 12th June highs. Now if we try and marry this with the Puetz cycle, we are now in a period with two windows. Anything can happen. It is the second lunar eclipse after the solar eclipse that fits most neatly with this Fibonacci cycle. The 31st of July is the first day of the window (-6: +3) from 6th August Lunar eclipse.
Uempel notes on 5th July that there may be some halt to the downtrend on 24th -27th of July, but has conflicting information. This is a concern for me too about the above. I am not privy to Uempels indicators, but Steve Puetz refined his theories on evidence produced by Chris Caralon that crashes tend to end around the periods of a new moon. This would bring us to 20th August. Also Puetz documented that the panic phase has a strong tendency to be entirely encompassed within the time span plus or minus six weeks of an equinox. The August new moon satisfies these criteria.
This would correspond much better with Mr. Dan Black and Mr. Panics assessment. I am finding it hard to reconcile this with the existing Fibonacci cycle (8, 13,21). Unless the 8 week down trend brings us only to a CRASH window.
Given that we are starting the 5th week of the 8 week down cycle and we are at 887.75 on SPX at time of writing. I think the next 4-7 weeks are open to a CRASH type situation. Whether this takes the form of daily burns, or one/two/three day inferno, I do not know. Personally I feel the March lows will not hold and will maintain a short bias. However I will look to enter long positions around this late July- mid August window should this opportunity present itself.
Obviously this is all conjecture and naturally, important SPX levels will have to be broken for this to have any relevance. Should anyone feel they can help refine this or have anything to add I would be delighted to hear about them?
Mr. Hoof
Mr. Hoof, great comment! Thanks!
ReplyDeleteIt's amazing to me that institutions have not started selling yet.
ReplyDeleteIf you look at buying, in the last few weeks the NYA has tracked it almost exactly.
Once the selling comes on line... Yikes.
Look like retail ISEE still fairly bullish on the equity. All indicies/ETF went above 100 several times today.
ReplyDeleteAlthough it bugs me that institution is not distributing. Is kinda disturbing to see them not "blink" yet on this game of chicken. I they still expecting 875 to hold and up we go again?
Frank
Another side note, SPX has a volume confirmation for a H&S pattern where the big volume spike come from the left shoulder and the volume decrease as we build the head and having the right shoulder the least volume. Perfect pattern and volume so far, the only problem is that this pattern is too obvious and it seems too many TA are looking at it... so I guess either it will be self-fulfilling or a great big bear trap after we break the neckline?
ReplyDeleteI won't worry about a pattern too obvious to play. It's H&S which has very high chances of playing out unlike, say, Triangle which usually makes false initial breakout.
ReplyDeletehey Cobra I enjoy reading your blog but I don't think it is a good idea for you to be distributing stocktiming.com's charts on a blog just because some people that read your blog request it. I don't mean any disrespect and maybe you asked for permiession to do that, so I apologize in advance if you did...but if not I don't think that is the right thing to do...or legal...
ReplyDeleteAnonymous above, I'm not sure if you are new, but Cobra already stated that he got permission from stocktiming.com already. And why do you care?
ReplyDeleteYeah, thanks, I know it's not good, so I just occassionally post it because the general rule for quoting is that 1-2 charts and paragraph should be fine.
ReplyDeleteMr. Hoof, a comment on your comment…
ReplyDeleteCycles don’t always play out. They only work when the data and the indicators support them. If the job report had shown positive results last Thursday, would that have triggered the downward move ? Or would there have been fireworks, or no reaction at all?
Before I validate a signal (such as a cycle) I try to put all the data into context, so that I can assess the relevance of the many variables. Focusing on one indicator alone can be quite misleading.
That’s the TA part of my comment, and here’s what the trader has to say: if the trend is not obvious, the best position is to be market neutral. l only take an unhedged position if I am 95 percent sure that this specific short, medium on long term trade makes sense. If it’s a mere guess, a strong feeling or a friend’s opinion, I am playing Roulette…
Last but not least: I’m amazed that you are contemplating a crash – but who knows, you might be right. At the moment some kind of correction is occurring, either downwards or sideways. I also believe that the uptrend will continue in due course. When? Two indicators that will give clear signals are (a weak) USD and (a slowly, slowly rising) CPI.
Mr. Hoof,
ReplyDeleteThose alternating 8week,13 week cycle sequences are impressive. I tracked them going back to after the first ten weeks of the bear market. (If they went back to the start of the bear market, it would be too obvious so shorter term Fib numbers didn't work although we can write off the first 10 weeks as two 5 week sequences if we had too) I wouldn't worry about what the implications of this 8 week cycle sequence are. It might just put in a temporary low and the next 13 weeks sequence could see a lower high similar to what occured in the Oct'08 to Jan'09 phase. There are just so many cycles in favor of the bears right now including the Jupiter retrograde cycle that you mentioned and as you can see that it is having its influence on the oil market which is just getting killed and the $xoi is in virtual crash mode right now which should be a leading indicator for the direction of the stock market. The Retail index also broke its neckline today. The McClellan summation index will tell us when a potentially important low might be and that might not be for awhile.
There was actually a Puetz crash date earlier this year on Feb9, from which point the market plunged to its March low in a mini panic. This Puetz crash cycle is double-reinforced one(lunar eclipses on each side of the solar eclipse) so we should expect some fireworks. Interestingly, the last year that featured 3 lunar eclipses was the major bear market low year of 1982.
----Mr. Panic
Mr. Hoof, thanks for your comment.
ReplyDeleteWhen it comes to making predictions, of course they are all a "dime a dozen"... and mostly wrong, which makes me no different in that respect. However, I'm trying to "think outside the box", and combine all the different experts in each field together to come up with the most likely outcome... all while playing in a rigged game.
Technical Analyst experts will say that the fundamentals are already priced into the charts. That's why each pattern plays out in a certain direction most of the time. Then Elliott wave experts find patterns that repeat themselves over and over... again, most of the time. Let's not forget about Fibonacci levels and dozens of other ways to read the market.
So, let's look at each one separately...
Technical Analysts: I'll leave that to Cobra and TheChartPatternTrader (Ron Walker) who are my favorite Tech Guys. Both seems bearish right now. Of course that could change in a month or two, but I'm not buying the "Green Shoot's" BS!
Elliott wave: Robert Prechter of Elliott wave International believes we are getting ready to enter Primary Wave 3 (down). Three waves or C waves are the most violent of all waves. Schweizer posted a nice chart at http://social.stocktock.com/photo/20072010-bear-channel?context=latest. I think we are headed down to about the 800 or so level in the short term. The July 22nd turn date should probably be about the bottom. The market should turn back up and peak about August 14th or so.
Fibonacci levels: That would put the Primary wave 3 low somewhere around the 400 level on the S&P500. Could be in October or November when that happens?
Manipulation: Goldman Sachs, or the PPT, has clearly been the force behind this massive rally from the March 6th low. Currently, the market volume has dried up to hardly nothing. Cobra's chart shows that no one is buying, but also that no one is selling... YET!
continued...
Part 2...
ReplyDeleteManipulation: Goldman Sachs, or the PPT, has clearly been the force behind this massive rally from the March 6th low. Currently, the market volume has dried up to hardly nothing. Cobra's chart shows that no one is buying, but also that no one is selling... YET!
I believe that WE are in the "Eye of the Storm", and have been for the last 2 months while trading sideways. At this point, the storm could go either way... Up or Down! When we exit the eye in mid-august, the hurricane will continue... but will it switch directions? I believe so.
With all of the above ways to predict the market, each can go either way. TA can stay in overbought or oversold territory for a very long time. Elliott waves can be re-counted differently if the trend changes. Fibonacci levels are even harder to predict.
All of those technical patterns can be read both bullish or bearish, as many different charts and opinions can be read. However, one thing will ultimately make peoples' decision on whether they buy or sell. What is it? It's "How They Feel"... scared or confident?
Astrology is something I know hardly "nothing" about. But, I DO know that peoples' moods are some how slightly effected by the planetary changes and alignments. The planets are aligning up in almost the same pattern that occurred in 1933, 1969, 1987, 1989, 2001, and now in 2009. (http://www.luckydays.tv/coming-stock-market-crash.html)
Clearly, those were bad years for the stock market. This is why I believe a "One Day Crash" will occur in mid-august. It would be minor wave 3 in major wave 3 of primary wave 3. That's a lot 3's!
Let's not forget about the manipulation by Goldman Sachs, and what they will probably do next. There is a great article over at http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/goldman-sachs-engineering-every-major.html called "The Great American Bubble Machine". Definitely worth your time to read. Also, on the main page is (http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/is-case-of-quant-trading-industrial.html), Tyler talks about a Russian who may have stolen GS's trading program software, and how they aren't listed anymore as a "program trader" on the NYSE. They simply "dropped off" the charts. Why? Do they have something to hide? If they aren't required to be listed on the NYSE Program Trading chart anymore, then could they be secretly selling right now? I don't know the answer, but something isn't right here.
Is Sergey (the Russian) just a fall guy? Was this created to allow GS to withdraw from reporting their activity to the NYSE? I firmly believe that GS has been controlling this market since the March 6th low. And, I believe they plan to tank it hard and profit from it all the way down. Then, use those profits to buy out their competitors at rock bottom prices.
Following GS is the only "REAL" way to predict the market direction. Of course, this is just my opinion, and not fact. It's just my way of piecing it all together in a way that follows TA, Elliott, Fib's, Astrology, and most important... what GS is planning next!
Dan Black
Thanks everyone for taking the time and effort to post your comments, analysis and further reading references. They are very much appreciated. At the moment (the past 3 months), I am frustrated and confused.
ReplyDeleteI predominately trade FTSE 100 stocks through cfds, the reluctance of the FTSE100 to progress past its May 8th post stress test highs is probably reinforcing my downside bias.
I am having a lot of difficulty making sense of fundamentals or technicals at the moment and that is why I have been attempting to gaze out there in hope of some natural order. Obviously blind pursuit of this is a dangerous strategy and I will have to let the market go first (if it does at all) or I will, unhappily be reliving the highlights of late March to early May, with stops out being a daily phenomenon. Again thanks for all the comments. Good trading everyone.
Mr. Hoof