Live Update

Wednesday, July 8, 2009

07/08/2009 Market Recap: Support Held

Summary:

Support still held.

Expect a rebound tomorrow.

  Trend Momentum Comments - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Down   Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend.
Intermediate Down Neutral  
Short-term Down Neutral  

Not much to say today. I don’t think the support on chart 1.0.1 Institutional Index (Daily) is broken, at least not decisively broken. As the support is held, plus extremely oversold readings mentioned in the After Bell Quick Summary, so my guess is that the market is due for a short-term rebound with SPY initial target at $88.72.

XIIDaily SPY15min

Some other reasons for a short-term rebound are listed below for your references:

1.1.3 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals, the NAMO at bottom is oversold which is very accurate from my experiences.

QQQQShortTerm

2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily), the well known VIX ENV 10 still is overbought, plus a Shooting Star formed today, so VIX could drop which means SPX could rise.

VIXDaily

7.7.9 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships, 1253 stocks price down volume up, finally we’ve got an oversold readings which usually means a short-term rebound.

RUA

Posted by Cobra at 9:33 PM

4 comments:

  1. AnonymousJuly 8, 2009 at 10:37 PM

    I'm curious what is normal for how long it takes to achieve the head and shoulders target of 810 or so. Could this take weeks? Months? I'm also wondering if certain days of the week tend to be distribution days more than others. I've observed that under normal circumstances, Mondays, Wednesdays and Thursdays tend to be the most likely to trend, and Tuesdays and Fridays tend to be consolidation. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Dave NarbyJuly 8, 2009 at 11:11 PM

    Hi Cobra,

    I agree we'll probably get some bounce, assuming we don't open with a big gap down...

    But it looks to me like the institutional index has broken that head and shoulders pattern, and as long as the institutions don't increase buying, any bounce will likely be sold into by them. IMO...

    ReplyDelete
  3. AnonymousJuly 8, 2009 at 11:40 PM

    anon,

    sentimentrader.com showed show stats on head and shoulders patterns and it seems like most analagous H&S tended to reach the target within about a month.

    ReplyDelete
  4. greenlanderJuly 9, 2009 at 12:30 AM

    I went long again around 300 pm. same ol positions UPRO and a v small batch of SMH calls.

    Looking to see if we get up to the neckline of SPy around 90 and then come back down again.
    Assuming we bounce tomorrow

    ReplyDelete

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