Summary:
Another chance of a turning day tomorrow.
| Trend | Momentum | Comments - Sample for using the trend table. | |
| Long-term | Down | Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend. | |
| Intermediate | Up | Overbought | |
| Short-term | Up | Overbought |
Bears may have another chance tomorrow. 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), today is the end of a 13 trading day cycle, because it closed high so it should turn lower tomorrow. About the accuracy of the cycle, please refer to chart 7.6.1 SPX Cycle Watch (60 min). At least it looks reliable to me. Because of AAPL ER in AH, I’m not sure if the market would rise huge tomorrow like it did after INTC ER, just if we had a gap up open tomorrow, it’d be the 3rd consecutive days the market opened with an up gap and the 8th unfilled gap on the SPY chart.
Speaking of the 8th unfilled gap, let’s take a quick look at 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily). It has way too many gaps, even with more restricted standards for gaps. If we had yet another gap tomorrow, well, don’t know what to say.
Nothing else new today. I don’t argue with my intermediate-term signal, so I don’t short here (exclude very very short-term though), but with market this bullish, I dare not chase high either.
2 tips from readers, just like to share with you.
Cumulative TICK from www.sentimentrader.com, SPX kept rising while cumulative TICK kept dropping, this is a negative divergence and probably a setup for a large pullback.
SPX rose 2 days in a row while TRIN kept above 1 for 2 days too, meaning the up volume wasn’t enough. The similar cases happened 3 times recently.
A few overbought signals listed below for your references.
0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals, ChiOsc way too high.
2.4.2 NYSE - Issues Advancing, overbought.
T2103 - Zweig Breadth Thrust from Telechart, overbought.
What's up with financials? 4 dojis in a row. I've been short financials since last thursday. The Dow has moved 200 pts in the meantime and my position opened last thursday is still profitable. Very odd. Without financials, this market is running on fumes and this whole rally was nonsense.
ReplyDeletere. 13 mkt day cycle count
ReplyDeleteCobra,
There are four 13 mkt day cycles I am tracking concurrently. Next likely pivot dates are:
Thurs 07-23, Thurs 07-30, Tue 08-04, Fri 08-07, and Tue 08-11.
No idea if these are likely Highs or Lows, just that they are likely Change in Trend (CIT) or pivot dates.
Thanks for sharing your work.
Regards, Jim P.
Cobra, I appreciate your work but lately your methods have proven to be extremely misleading. By going with your methods, any trader would've been completely cleaned out by now. I suggest you re-examine your methods. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteAnony, sorry, I don't understand what I did wrong. Didn't I keep saying everyday that there're 78% chances a green close next day but personally I won't chase high? Didn't I tell you after the day of INTC ER that all the paid services I subscribe were bullish and some even took long. Did I mention a single word of going "short"? All I'm saying is that I'll wait. Is it guilty of saying that? You want to take long at this stage, sure, go ahead, perhaps this is once in a life time, just I have no guts for it.
ReplyDeleteAnon,
ReplyDeleteCobra spends much of his hard earned time, constructing reports like this, for which he does not receive a dime.
What about some gratitude, Indeed it is thanks to Cobra that i find myself NOT completely wiped out.
I suggest, if you are so disapproving of Cobras methods you start your own blog and put the time effort, and hard graft in. Now don't forget to provide a synopsis of your methdology.
Good luck
Ps Cobra thanks for everything, your site as always is the first port of call.
Mr. Hoof
Thank you Hoof. Anyway, I think I need to re-think about my method. Yeah, I agree, sometimes it does seem usless. I really hope I could help here...
ReplyDeleteCobra,.. Don't get discouraged.
ReplyDeleteRe my 3 wk cycle likely pivot date for tomorrow, Thurs 07-23, I now expect it to be a turn DOWN.
It is now 3pm on Wed 07-22, and we are holding firm, up 2.5 pts on the SP500,..will take advantage of this strength end of day Wedn to get short.
Regards, Jim P.
Jim, thanks. I saw other blog looking at tomorrow as well...
ReplyDeleteCobra,
ReplyDeleteDon't get discouraged. Pound for pound you have the best blog out there and you are definitely innovative. We're in a blowoff top and that causes many to question their long held beliefs.
And Jim thanks for the Carolan link. Its pretty technical and hard to follow but I'd like to research some of his ideas. I bought his book in the 90s and I think I had a brief subscription to his newsletter. He was hard to follow then too. He originally predicted a double top 2001, 2009 using those theories; it might not have been a double-top but there is a relationship in my opinion.
This new Indian astrologer I found seems to imply that July 24 will be a key (down)day and I believe we need to drop below 880SP by end of July if we're to get a big drop in August. We also need to invalidate the bullish looking monthly candle/ patterns for July and get below those key averages and channels.
Mr. Panic
Thanks, Mr Panic.
ReplyDeleteYou are welcome Mr Panic. I too find Carolan's work to be interesting. Regardss, Jim P.
ReplyDelete