We had both VIX and SPX down on the same day, from the chart below, counting the vertical green lines, 8 out 10 cases, the SPX closed in green the next day.
Also from Seasonality, the next Monday and Tuesday are the most bullish day in July.
So pretty decent chances we’ll have a green Monday.
But, here’s a big but, also from Seasonality, we can see that days after next Tuesday are not so “bull friendly” and plus, we had an up day this Thursday which statistically means 67% chances in the bear market, a red week the coming OE week (i.e. next week).
Enough info to draw you own action plan? Enjoy your weekend!
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Cool! Thanks Cobra
ReplyDeleteGreat!
ReplyDeletethanks.
ReplyDeletethanks for the info!
ReplyDeleteJune5th closed at 940, june8th (mon) at 939, so the dotted green line should be solid green line. it's 7 out of 10 times true. ;-) Thanks for your great work! -----------90ufo
ReplyDeletethx. ding
ReplyDeleteThanks Cobra,
ReplyDeleteI love your posts/analysis! And I especially like your quick market close posts you've added lately... keep up the great work!
The SPX and VIX both drop may not make sense for its own, because the overall market was in an uptrend in past 3months.
ReplyDeleteCould you add the CPC on the days when both of SPX and VIX dropped, I bet the conclusion may be different.
I've been reading your commentary and looking at your Public Chart List on StockCharts for about three weeks now. What an amazing set of charts! I now am finding myself looking at your commentary before all others. To look at work that is so thorough and comprehensive, and yet is always clean of any political and economic opinion, is truly refreshing. Brilliant!
ReplyDeleteCobra, the compliments of Anonymous 8:41 hit the bull's eye! I agree.totally.
ReplyDeletetoday, friday before OE week, VIX might due to rebalancing, so can not be fully trusted. but $CPC today 1.08 does reword a UP monday, But only for monday before GS ER Monday before mkt open
ReplyDeleteTypo, GS ER Tuesday before mkt open
ReplyDeletethanks
ReplyDeleteCobra
ReplyDeleteInspired by you say on the VIX I had a look at all the instances since 1990 when the VIX and the S&P 500 were both down. Sure enough in 8 out the last 11 instances of this the S&P 500 closed up the next day.
However, from the 539 instances of this since 1990 I find 293 days when this was followed by and S&P 500 up day and 246 when the S&P 500 dropped - which is a less spectacular margin...
Would you recommend any her filters on this in order to isolate when this signal may work with a high degree of probability?
Cobra, I also have to support the opinion of Anonymous at 8:41, your strength is TA without an ego or agenda, and the quality of what you bring forward leads the pack of all other sites by at least a mile. Analyze.
ReplyDeleteDouglas, the vix during the 1990's was probably an average of 10-17... I do not think it's right to compare historical VIX to recent VIX as the average of 2007 was probably double the averages 15 years ago.
ReplyDeleteGuys, thanks. I've been sick for 2 weeks now and finally got some good sleep. Seeing so many comments after a good sleep is perhaps the best medicine I've had. Thanks again.
ReplyDeleteAbout both SPX and VIX down, I see lots of different opinion and also am aware that longer history statistics don't support a bullish day next day. For 2 reasons I didn't mention this here:
1. I emphasize more on the most recent data.
2. I'm trying to be objective even though I might have my own thoughts (lots of times), just simply if I don't have any solid proof, I'd say nothing.
Also, check this link: http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/2009/06/06262009-after-bell-quick-summary.html, the last time I chose to ignore this I was slapped right on the face by both someone and the market. So that's why I didn't want to make the same mistake this time...
90ufo, thanks, I've corrected that error.
ReplyDeleteI saw CPC rsing for 4 days in a row, I don't think this is bullish.
ReplyDeleteRemember that SPY went ex-divident 19 June with payout of 0.581 included in the price (payout 31 July). That might change some of your chart points.
ReplyDeleteAlso, there was a BIG disconnect Friday -- SPX, VIX, VXN and RUG (Realized SPX Variance) were all down -- but IUG (Implied SPX Variance) was UP 10.8%. This could signal dramatic events for next week.
Last, when evaluating VIX and volatility remember that tese are measures of instability - which is by defininition not-stable and not always suitable to measure with conventional charting methods.
ghh
Here's the chart of IUG http://tinyurl.com/mpwseo
ReplyDeleteghh