Latest Institutional Buying and Selling Trending from www.stocktiming.com. Accumulation > Distribution again and right now almost all paid services I subscribe are bullish.
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From a contrarian point of view, that sounds like a good time for a short term short trade.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't think that way, some of these paid services are pretty reliable.
ReplyDeleteMy paid services just went short and waiting to short more arias :)
ReplyDeleteThe economy numbers are still very bad no matter how good CNBC in speculation and rumoring.
Wow, what kind of service you have? Mind telling me?
ReplyDeleteWell, check ISEE, above 200?! 240s?! IS this OE shenanigan? Only missing the indices/ETF side, need to go above 100! C'mon!
ReplyDeleteFrank
Yeah, I saw that. 240s? Who cares, all bears dead.
ReplyDeleteBears are as upset as ever...which may be good for a big drop...Maybe this is the last fakeout...looks similar to pattern from Sept. 2001 thru July 2002 in $SPX.
ReplyDeleteCobra: it's called options trading pit. Not sure if you would consider it's reliable .. We shell see :)
ReplyDeleteRight now, any bearish thinking is unreliable. LOL
ReplyDeleteJust a bit of warning: this guy lost about 5 last trades in a row by being bearish. But, as you said and to be fear to him, that sounds as the proper call.
ReplyDeleteApparently, you didn't read my post carefully, period.
ReplyDeleteFrom WSJ on VIX and SPX rising on Wed. "This isn't supposed to happen. Normally, as investors pour money into stocks, volatility is expected to lessen, not increase. The two are negatively correlated, so this was a rarity for the "fear gauge", as the VIX is known.
ReplyDeleteIn fact, Jason Goepfert of Sentimenttrader.com said Wednesday was only the third time in history that both the VIX and SP500 rose more than 2.5% on the same day. The other two occasions were Nov 27,2002 and a few weeks ago on June 1.
The market declined after both of those instances", he said, "Generally, when implied volatility increases on a day when stocks move strongly higher, it has led to below-average returns in the short-term and mostly in-line results after a couple of weeks."
Goepfert suggested the potential reason behind the move in the Vix was panic call buying by those who had short-covered calls ahead of expiration this week.
Indeed this demand for calls which convey the right to buy shares-may have pushed option prices higher, leading to an increase in Vix.
Mr. Panic
It's 3:35pm on Fri,..and both VIX and SP500 are LOWER on the day. This should bode well for Monday? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteJim P.
Yeah, means an up Monday. But today's story maybe on CPCE which reads at 0.53 now and this usually means an unpleasant next day assume the last 20 minute won't change this readings too much (below 0.56 is OK).
ReplyDeleteArch Crawford recommended going 100% short after today. His analysis is "out there" - Bradley model, the coming eclipse next week, and planetary alignments and such. At least it's entertaining!
ReplyDeleteIt's the $VIX. Tells all:
ReplyDelete$VIX
This week was a rougue wave on the SPX. Even the daily Slow STO did a 180 at sub50 and ended up overbought. I might be convinced if the volume confirmed but it was lame.
What's the deal with the volume? Does anyone have an explanation why volumes have been really low the past 2 months?
ReplyDeleteThe 2009 average for volume on NYSE is 1.492 billion shares per day, with a standard deviation of 306 million. Since June 8, we have had 17 trading days where volumes were less than 1 standard deviation less than the average (ie. < 1.18 billion shares traded), 10 trading days within 1 stddev of the average (but still less than the average), and only 2 that were greater. Of these 2 days (6/19 and 6/26), 6/19 was OE, but 6/26 over 1 billion shares traded after hours, so that would have been a below average day if not for that.
Today was OE but only 1.29 billion shares traded.
What happened to the volume and what does this mean about the results we're seeing? Does it invalidate them because of the low volume?
This is NOT a seasonal pattern. Last year's pattern was nothing like this, it was strong until around August when volume dropped for a week. This year we have consistently seen 1.5 months of very low volumes.
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ReplyDeleteMost of money is in cash. Once I realized how laughably manipulated the market is, I had no intention of playing in it. I focus my time on buying dirt cheap rental properties where I can receive a reasonable tidy income without having high frequency traders and the US Government game the system. IMHO...
ReplyDeleteI went flat into weekend. Have been just scalping last 2 days after going short at close and covering at open a few times this week.
ReplyDeleteFriday seemed like consolidation so I am leaning towards more buying early in week. But some neg divergences finally starting to creep in 15-60 min time frames.
It is intersting that Goldman Sachs booked good profit this semester. Most likely is from trading. They've got no rival now. Merrill Lynch, Lehman and Bear Stearns have gone, big investors are in the side line. It would be easy to corner the market.
ReplyDeleteWhen you see the chart from stocktiming.com, both institution accumulation and distribution are low. Such condition is ideal for a (few) market maker to stir and to manipulate the market to any direction they want.
Conspiration theory is really pathetic, but it is possible. Like many (GATA) believe that gold price is manipulated.
Well, nothing we can do about it. Thanks for the comment Imam!
ReplyDelete