Summary:
Still expect at least a short-term pullback. Not sure if it's Monday though.
| Trend | Momentum | Comments - Sample for using the trend table. | |
| Long-term | Down | Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend. | |
| Intermediate | Up | Neutral | |
| Short-term | Up | Overbought |
No new contents, almost identical to Thursday report. Still waiting for a pullback, just not sure if it's coming on Monday as from After Bell Quick Summary, 78% chance a green Monday will be. In the quick summary, I mentioned that because CPCE < 0.56, so bears sill have a hope, just the final CPCE readings turn out to be at 0.58, therefore odds seem against bears on Monday.
Anyway, I still expect at least a short-term pullback, therefore personally, I won’t chase high here.
0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals, pay attention to the vertical dashed red lines, at current position ChiOsc always led to a big pullback in the past. Also the divergence between NYADV and NYUPV still make me suspect that the market is topping (Well, I mean I actually MURMURED that the market is topping).
1.1.4 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals, except very high ChiOsc and STO, volume kept dropping for 3 days in a row and this kind of price volume negative divergence usually means a pullback.
2.4.2 NYSE - Issues Advancing, every time when red dashed line touched the thick horizontal red line above, a pullback happened.
T2103 - Zweig Breadth Thrust from Telechart, still overbought.
Short-term model from www.sentimentrader.com, very overbought.
1.1.5 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 30 min), Bearish Rising Wedge plus lots of negative divergences.
3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily), could be a Bullish Tri Star, the US$ could rebound, which means that the stock market could pullback.
Great stuff! Appreciated!
ReplyDeleteHere's one to add to the dialog:
$INDU Monthly
Cobra,
ReplyDeleteAgree with you that Monday 07-20 is biased to be up.
My next 3 week cycle (likely pivot) date is Tues 07-21, and I expect it to be a turn down from a High. (note 07-21 is 13 mkt days from 07-01).
Thanks for the great charts,
Regards, Jim P.
An interesting obervation regarding the P/C ratio. the OEX P/C is an 'odd' p/c ratio in that it generally moves in sync with the market (it is non-contrarian). It has been diverging recently from this behavior. The last 3 days the OEX p/c has been tending to a lower 2+ month low as the market has been moving higher.
ReplyDeleteJim,
ReplyDeleteMany different Charists and Astrologers have the 22nd, 23rd, and 24th as a "turn date". So, I agree with you and Cobra that Monday will be up. If it doesn't close up, then a small down day or doji is likely. That could push the turn date out until the middle of the week.
Let us not forget the we still have light volume, which is easy to manipulate up. We are probably not going down hard until Goldman Sucks have dumped all their worthless stock on the poor "dumb money" crowd. That should be done soon. They gave us over a week of "doji hell", while they were selling into.
So, I definitely agree that this week will start the correction down. Not sure if it's going to be "Turn-around-Tuesday" or a day or two later? But, I feel safe going short next week (about as safe as this bear http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49VOwXcly1k)
Dan Black
Hi
ReplyDeleteCobra I visited your blog every day.
Thanks for your work.
Dax - Medium term
http://followmarketrend.blogspot.com/2009/07/dax-big-picture.html
Between the range. Nothing new medium term.
Nice video.
http://followmarketrend.blogspot.com/2009/07/great-shape-of-us-economy.html
Click to zoom in
Big trades for you and for all
Enjoy
High Frequency Trading is now 70% of the volume per Joe Saluzzi.
ReplyDeleteAt this point the market will go in whatever direction GS or the DTCC wants it to.
There is no "market" while these entities are operating.
I think those averages and channel on Schweizer's chart will hold the market. Michael Belkin used to say that the 200 week average was the mean reversion line for the market so I'd have to say that the 200month is pretty significant. The market is also up against the 50 week average which is last area of support until the 20month which is somewhere in the 1000s.
ReplyDeleteSPX and VIX up 2.5% on the same day is probably the new Sign of the Bear indicator. Some indicator (as well as the upcoming solar eclipse) has Arch Crawford spooked out of the market. Eliade's Sign of the Bear won't work because too many people are looking for it and GS will make sure to destroy any obvious bearish formations like they destroyed the head and shoulders pattern last week. The last time we had both SP and Vix up like that was on June 1st and the SP basically traded sideways to slightly higher for nearly two weeks before plunging.
We also had a similar technical pattern in Feb./march 2002 in which the market made a fakeout breakout to the downside and then reversed and the market shot back to the old highs but did not exceed them before heading to new lows. (This was discussed Friday on Yahoo SKF board) There is a certain esoteric that predicted this reversal in both instances and it calls for either a brief counter-trend rally or the continuation of an intermediate rally. But the market did not get oversold enough nor did the McClellan summation index get negative enough from which an intermediate rally could spring so I see this as some sort of Wave 2 (We're also in mega-phone topping pattern in which case this could be labeled the final e-wave).
If the SP can drop below 880 by the end of the month that would be the mother of all sell signals.
The solar eclipse on the 22nd is considered a major solar eclipse. Some websites have indicated that it is the most powerful of the 21st century and it is a new moon also. (One astrologer calls it a SuperMoon so I need to research this) A major sunspot(Sunspot 1024) also appeared 2 weeks ago and according to an article from the Wympie Times of Austalia it is the largest ever recorded, 60 to 80times the size of earth and the last one in 2007 lasted 45 days. The article appears in sendayo.com (???)from a few weeks ago. So there definitely is a confluence of unusual astrological activity occurring right now.
Mr. Panic of 1907/2009
The sunspot article is dated July 8th from the Glympie Times and it appears on standeyo.com (Suns storms set to intensify)
ReplyDeleteThanks guys. I have 7 TD cycle due on Monday and 13 TD cycle due on Tuesday, so if Monday up then probably Tuesday down and then up Wednesday.
ReplyDeleteI noticed the topping megaphone pattern too after the H&S "failure".....a divergent variant of a wolfewave?
ReplyDeleteIf so it looks like we are topping out and target looks to be 840ish.
Any input?
Cobra, Dan Black, and Mr. Panic,..
ReplyDeleteThanks for sharing of ideas on week ahead. I too am open minded to an early am 07-21 High (lower close on Tue),..and turn down into Wed 07-22 Low,..with turn UP on Thurs 07-23, which is a 3 wk cycle (likely pivot) date being 13 mkt days from Mon 07-06.
The 07-22 Solar Eclipse could come in as a LOW,..by other methods,...here is a link to ASMT blog which suggests it will be a LOW:
http://allstarmarkettiming.typepad.com/my_weblog/
In general, I am thinking that the week ahead should be more "trading range" activity and less of the "trending" move we saw last week.
Have a good day/week. Regards, Jim P.
Also,
ReplyDeleteI found this to be an interesting study,..
thought that others might as well:
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=108776
Regards, Jim P.
What Mr Panic says, you could be find it out in Jay Taylor interview with Arch Crawford here:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kitco.com/ind/kitcoradio/
Consider it as an entertaining rather than analysis. However, gold starts shooting to the sky today....
Intersting .....
Dave, I'm not sure about any "topping" pattern now.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteJim, Mr. Panic & Dan Black,
ReplyDeleteThis astrology prediction seems to be so widely talked. This remind me to several occasion. Few years back, there was a wide spread rumour that someone just bought several million $ of DAX put option at a certain strike price insinuating that the stock market would crash. It looked to me that many followed the step of shorting the market. What happened then, the stock market rallied!!
Just like two weeks ago, when the word 'head & shoulders' was very popular. You know what happended the week after.
Like Cobra said, "I am not sure about any topping pattern now", or even bottom or resession.
cobra, I see that there is a big gap between NYADV and NYUPV again... and we are pretty much up and up and up... I doubt the chance of closing the "gap" by going up?! Or maybe we will just hit 1500 tomorrow?! :)
ReplyDeleteBut then again, for bearish case, I really don't see any until we close below 87 on SPY. The problem with that though, I think we need to gap down below 87 (like a 5% overnight gap) in order to accomplish that because it seems this uptrend momentum is simply too great to be killed with simple bull back... any pull back could just be another higher low and any small pull back, the buyer probably will get in thinking they miss another leg up and the shorts probably will want to cover to cut loss... so conclusion, I think we need a major gap down to kill this bull...
But I don't see any reason why we'll have a 5% gap down?
ReplyDelete