I don’t see anything special today so have no idea about tomorrow. A wild guess though, since we had 3 days in a row opened with a gap down, so how good the chances are that we have yet another gap down open tomorrow? Meanwhile, just a reminder, if we have a gap up open tomorrow, it’ll be the 8th gap on the SPY chart, I’m not sure if it could hold or not.
In case someone wondering, bad or good when ISEE Equities Only Index closes above 220? As it looks too bullish, the call:put ratio is 2.2:1. Well, here’s the chart, we had only 4 cases recently, the ISEE Equities Only Index read above 220. It says nothing to me…
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It says nothing to me…
ReplyDeletevery good, thanks..it looks a green day
ReplyDeleteMcClellan indicator yesterday predicted a large market move...typically it occurs within a day or two, so maybe it will be tomorrow
ReplyDeleteMaybe
ReplyDeleteCobra, Sentimentrader's STEM.MR models for both NYSE and NASDAQ are turning up from oversold levels. Suggests near term upside. Thanks. Regards, Jim P.
ReplyDeleteCobra, what about oex put/call ratio in combination with the isee? Looking at the oex put/call, it looks like the smart traders are fading the market.
ReplyDeleteCould you look at this combination and see what history tells us?
Keep up the great work!!
Thanks, Bill
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ReplyDeleteBill, while I cannot speak for Cobra, the amount of put buying in my opinion is protection for long positions.
ReplyDeleteGenerally after such an extended up move you see profit taking - this is not occurring here so instead of taking profits long holders are buying protection via puts. The reason they may do that instead of taking profits is the assumption that the positions have more room to go on the upside but they want to be protected in case short term wise the market moves lower.
Chaugner, agreed. It still does not explain the combination of excessive bullishness and extreme oex put/call ratio that shows smart money is fading this market in a big way.
ReplyDeleteBill
Cobra,
ReplyDeleteDo you know where to download "equity only" and "index only" isee option data (historical data)?
Thanks a lot!
Bill
Bill, I don't know where to download ISEE historical data. Also high OEX put/call ratio may mean a lot of hedge because fund managers see more downside risks so OEX put/call ratio could be a leading indicator. Just it's not a timingly indicator.
ReplyDeleteAny thoughts on if we touch 1000 on S&P...So much talk like when we were approaching 200 MA in May
ReplyDeleteI'll go out on a limb here. I think the market puts in a top tomorrow. Not just a short-term top -- the final top. When I see everyone around me putting upside targets on the market, those targets are NEVER reached. If it's an up day that closes a doji, that will be confirmation. A down day will disappoint me because that is likely just a pullback.
ReplyDeleteYeah, since everybody expects a dip then a new high much much higher. I'm not sure if this would be the path of the market.
ReplyDelete